Sunday, September 01, 2013

Three Reasons Why Narendra Modi Won’t Be Indian Prime Minister in 2014

The hype around the media – print, visual and social is that come next general elections and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is going to be Indian Prime Minister. Lot of potential voters is talking about a “wave” in favor of Modi but is there any realistic chance of him becoming Prime Minister after next election? As a person who understands the political landscape of this county, I believe that Narendra Modi is not going to be the Indian Prime Minister after the next general elections. Here are the reasons for it.
BJP just don’t have the numbers 
I believe for a person like Narendra Modi, who has an image of being “divisive” to ever become the Prime Minister of India, BJP has to get majority of its own or at least come close to the majority in Lok Sabha that they can make up the numbers with their trusted allies like Shiv Sena or Akali Dal. Even at the peak of the popularity (after the Rath Yatra by L K Advani) BJP could only win 120 seats and the mid term elections in 1999 (under the leadership of Vajpayee) won 183 seats (maximum seats BJP won so far in one election to Lok Sabha). In the coming election it will be very tough to come anywhere near the 1999 tally. Maximum seats BJP can possibly win in various states wont exceed the number given below unless a miracle happens. 
Andra Pradesh – 3/42
Assam – 3/14
Bihar – 10/40
Chhattisgarh – 7/11
Goa – 2/2
Gujarat – 23/26
Haryana – 6/10
Himachal Pradesh – 1/4
Jammu and Kashmir – 1/6
Jharkand – 6/14
Karnataka – 10/28
Kerala – 0/20
Madya Pradesh – 20/29
Maharastra – 10/48
Odisha – 7/21
Punjab – 5/13
Rajasthan – 13/25
Tamil Nadu – 2/39
Uttar Pradesh – 15/80
Uttarakhand – 3/5
West Bengal – 3/42
North East – 2/11
Delhi and other Union Territories – 9/13
This all adds up to 160 and BJP needs another 100 for a simple majority in Lok Sabha; for that BJP is dependent on likes of Jayalalithas, Nitish Kumars and Mamata Banerjees to make that numbers and if couple of them have objection in making him the leader of BJP due to his public image that is it – not going to be Prime Minister. Whenever there is coalition government the leader chosen to lead is always an “inclusive” person and not a “divisive” person and I am sure Narendra Modi is going to lose his battle.
History
Whenever Congress government has lost power at the Center, it has resulted in unstable governments most of which were coalition governments that came together with a single point agenda – “hatred towards Congress” (Jantha government of Moraji Desai in 1977 and Charan Singh in 1979; Janatha Dal government of V.P. Singh in 1989 and Chandrasekhar in 1991; Janatha Dal government of Deva Gowda in 1996 and I.K Gujral in 1997). The political reality points to a repeat of such an scenario after 2014 elections when no national party is going to get majority and regional parties with the support of one or the other national party is going to form the government. If that happens BJP may end up supporting some government or may be sitting in opposition.
Peaking too early
Those who followed the BJP lead NDA government’s 2004 election campaign they may remember “India Shining” campaign. If I remember correctly, NDA government and BJP started this campaign almost 7 to 8 months before the actual day of elections. Eight months is a long time in politics and the buzz surrounding “India Shining” has lost its shine by the time voters actually went to polls. Also the opposition had enough time to plan and present a counter campaign against “India Shining” campaign of NDA. It is well known that NDA has paid a heavy price in 2004 elections due to Indian Shining campaign.
I feel BJP has not learnt the lesson from this “India Shining” disaster. I believe BJP has started projecting Narendra Modi as Prime Minister little too early. Even if you have good number of spin doctors around to build a brand image called “Narendra Modi” it is tough to maintain this tempo for another seven to eight months. A wrong word used there or a wrong gesture is enough tarnish this image that will be too tough to rebuild. Again by the time the people actually go to vote, because of the overdose of Narendra Modi, majority of the people (actual voters) would have lost interest in brand “Narendra Modi” in a similar way the people lost interest in “India Shining” campaign.
Where will I put my cards for Prime Minister Candidate after 2014 elections? With regional parties gaining strength someone having profile similar to H.D Deva Gowda (who was nowhere in the picture during the election time of 1996) is going to become the Indian Prime Minister. I don’t want such a scenario to happen but the political climate prevailing in the country is converging towards such a situation.
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3 Comments:

Blogger Kalyan Inampudi said...

Modi can never become PM , I am not anti-anybody .

Reasons are too evident
1.Every CM wants to be PM some say it openly other keep silent .
2.Every state needs minority support which is dead set against modi for his alleged role in 2002 .
3.So no CM is going to have easy time forming a coilation govt .
4.NO Party ever formed govt on its own except congress .
5.Modi is MEDIA made , he is not mass leader , just an urban educated class phenomenon .

One more theory of mine , after seeing after effects of Indira there is a unwritten convention among sydicates or political groups that no powerful person should be made PM at any costs and instead a weak guy with no mass base should be made as PM .

September 01, 2013 8:13 PM  
Blogger Arun Shankar said...

While the post makes some sense, there is main point neglected.
You don't need the simple majority number to form a government; you just need to be the biggest party.

It is not the coalition with simple majority, but the party with highest number of MPs that is being invited to form government.

So, if BJP turns out to be the largest single party, the game is won! And the only sensible reason that can happen as of now is NaMo effect.

September 02, 2013 6:37 PM  
Blogger Abhishek Sharma said...

next prime minister of india is narendra modi and they also win the 2013 elections.

October 05, 2013 9:00 PM  

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