Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Kerala Elections 2011 – My Picks (UDF - 82, LDF - 58, BJP - 0)

I have done this exercise for all elections held in Kerala from 2006 – predicting the winners. I went badly wrong in 2006 assembly elections but was very close in 2009 Lok Sabha election. Here are my picks for the Kerala Assembly election 2011. I predict a majority for UDF with 82 seats and LDF bagging remaining 58 seats. BJP has to wait long before they can send their representative to Kerala Assembly. Here are my predictions for all the 140 constituencies.
Updated 13th May, 2011
I got 114 constituencies out of 140 correct (82% correct which is not bad). Those marked in green are what I got correct and those in red are what I got wrong. 
Sl No
District
Constituency
Winner



 (Predicted)
1
Kasargode
Manjeshwar
P V Abdul Razaq (IUML)
2
Kasaragod
N A Nellikunnu (IUML)
3
Uduma
K Kunjuraman (CPM)
4
Kanhangad
E Chandrasekharan (CPI)
5
Trikkaripur
K Kunjiraman (CPM)
6
Kannur
Payyannur
C Krishnan (CPM)
7
Kalliasseri
T V Rajesh (CPM)
8
Taliparamba
James Mathew (CPM)
9
Irikkur
K C Joseph (INC) 
10
Azhikode
Prakashan Master (CPM)
11
Kannur
A P Abdullakutty (INC) 
12
Dharmadom
K K Narayanan (CPM)
13
Thalassery
Kodiyeri Balakrishnan (CPM)
14
Koothuparamba  
S A Puthiyavalappil (INL)
15
Mattannur
E P Jayarajan (CPM)
16
Peravoor
 Sunny Joseph (INC)
17
Wayanad
Mananthavady(ST)
 P K Jayalakshmi (INC)
18
Sulthanbathery(ST)
I C Balakrishnan (INC) 
19
Kalpetta
MV Shreyas Kumar (SJD) 
20
Kozhikode
Vadakara
M K Premnath (SJD)
21
Kuttiadi
Lathika (CPM)
22
Nadapuram
E K Vijayan (CPI)
23
Quilandy
 K P Anil Kumar (INC)
24
Perambra
K Kunjumohammad Master (CPM)
25
Balusseri(SC)
Purushan Kadalundi (CPM)
26
Elathur
A K Sasithran (NCP)
27
Kozhikode Nor
P V Gangadharan (INC) 
28
Kozhikode Sou
M K Muneer (IUML)
29
Beypore
Elimaram Karim (CPM)
30
Kunnamangalam
P T A Rahim (IND
31
Koduvally
V M Ummar Master (IUML)
32
Thiruvambadi
C Moyinkutty (IUML)
33
Malappuram
Kondotty
K Mohammadunni Haji (IUML)
34
Eranad
P K Basheer (IUML)
35
Nilambur
Aryadan Mohammad (INC)
36
Wandoor (SC)
 A P Anil Kumar (INC)
37
Manjeri
M Ummer (IUML)
38
Perinthalmanna  
Manjalamkuzhi Ali (IUML)
39
Mankada
T A Ahmad Kabir (IUML)
40
Malappuram
P Ubeydulla (IUML)
41
Vengara
P K Kunjalikutty (IUML)
42
Vallikunnu
K N A Khadhar (IUML)
43
Tirurangadi
P K Abdurab (IUML)
44
Tanur
Abdurahman Randathani (IUML)
45
Tirur
C Mammotty (IUML)
46
Kottakkal
Abdhul Samat Samadhani (IUML)
47
Tavanur
K T Jaleel (IND
48
Ponnani
P Ramakrishnan (CPM)
49
Palakkad
Thrithala
P Mammikutty (CPM)
50
Pattambi
C P Mohammad (INC) 
51
Shornur
K S Saleekha (CPM)
52
Ottappalam
M Hamza (CPM)
53
Kongad (SC)
K V Vijayadas (CPM) 
54
Mannarkad
N Shamshudeen (IUML)
55
Malampuzha
V S Achuthanathan (CPM)
56
Palakkad
 K K Divakaran (CPM)
57
Tarur (SC)
A K Balan (CPM) 
58
Chittur
Subash Chandra Bose (CPM) 
59
Nenmara
V Chenthamarakshan (CPM) 
60
Alathur
 M Chandran (CPIM)
61
Thrissur
Chelakkara (SC)
K Radhakrishnan (CPM)
62
Kunnamkulam
C P John (CMP) 
63
Guruvayoor
K V Abdul Khadar (CPM)
64
Manalur
P A Madhavan (INC) 
65
Vadakkanchery
C N Balakrishnan (INC)
66
Ollur
M P Vincent (INC)
67
Thrissur
 Terambil Ramakrishnan (INC)
68
Nattika (SC)
Geetha Gopi (CPI)
69
Kaipamangalam
V S Sunil Kumar (CPI)
70
Irinjalakuda
Thomas Unniyadan (KC-M) 
71
Puthukkad
C Raveendranath (CPM)
72
Chalakkudy
K T Benny (INC) 
73
Kodungallur
T N Prathapan (INC)
74
Eranakulam
Perumbavoor
Saju Paul (CPM)
75
Angamaly
Jose Thettayil (JDU)
76
Aluva
Anwar Sadath (INC) 
77
Kalamassery
K Chandran Pillai (CPM)
78
Paravur
V D Satheeshan (INC) 
79
Vypeen
S Sharma (CPM)
80
Kochi
Dominic Presentation (INC)
81
Tripunithura
C M Dinesh Mani (CPM)
82
Ernakulam
 Hybi Eden (INC)
83
Thrikkakara
 Benny Behannan (INC)
84
Kunnathunad(SC)
V P Sajendran (INC)
85
Piravom
T M Jacob (KC-J)
86
Muvattupuzha
 Joseph Vazhakkal (INC)
87
Kothamangalam
T U Kuruvilla (KC-M) 
88
Idukki
Devikulam (SC)
 A K Mani (INC)
89
Udumbanchola
K K Jayachandran (CPM)
90
Thodupuzha
Joseph Augustine (CPM)
91
Idukki
Roshy Augustine (KC-M) 
92
Peerumade
E M Augusthy (INC) 
93
Kottayam
Palai
K M Mani (KC-M)
94
Kaduthuruthy
Monce Josept (KC-M) 
95
Vaikom (SC)
K Ajith (CPI)
96
Ettumanoor
Thomas Chazikadan (KC-M)
97
Kottayam
Thiruvanjoor  Radhakrishnan (INC) 
98
Puthuppally
 Omman Chandy (INC)
99
Changanassery
C F Thomas (KC-M) 
100
Kanjirappally
N Jayaraj (KC-M)
101
Poonjar
P C George (KC-M) 
102
Alappuzha
Aroor
A A Shakoor (INC)
103
Cherthala
 P Thilothaman (CPI)
104
Alappuzha
Thomas Issac (CPM)
105
Ambalapuzha
G Sudhakaran (CPM)
106
Kuttanad
Dr K C Joseph (KC-M) 
107
Haripad
 Ramesh Chennithala (INC)
108
Kayamkulam
 M Murali (INC)
109
Mavelikkara(SC)
R Rajesh (CPM)
110
Chengannur
P C Vishnunath (INC) 
111
Pathanamthitta
Thiruvalla
Mathew T Thomas (JDU)
112
Ranni
Philipose Thomas (INC)
113
Aranmula
 A Sivadasan Nair (INC)
114
Konni
 Adoor Prakash (INC)
115
Adoor (SC)
 Pandalam Sudhakaran (INC)
116
Kollam
Karunagappally
A N Rajan Babu (JSS)
117
Chavara
Shibu Babu John (RSP)
118
Kunnathur (SC)
Kovoor Kunjumon (RSP)
119
Kottarakkara
N N Murali (KC –B)
120
Pathanapuram
K Rajagopal (CPM)
121
Punalur
K Raju (CPI)
122
Chadayamangalam
Mullakara Ratrakaran (CPI)
123
Kundara
P Germias (INC) 
124
Kollam
P K Gurudasan (CPM)
125
Eravipuram
P K K Baba (IUML)
126
Chathannur
Bindu Krishna (INC) 
127
Trivandrum
Varkala
Varkala Kahar (INC) 
128
Attingal (SC)
B Satyan (CPM)
129
Chirayinkeezhu  
V Sasi (CPI)
130
Nedumangad
Palode Ravi (INC) 
131
Vamanapuram
Koliakodu Krishnan Nair (CPM)
132
Kazhakoottam
 M A Vahid (INC)
133
Vattiyoorkavu(SC)
K Muralidharan (INC) 
134
Thiruvananthapuram
V S Sivakumar (INC) 
135
Nemom
V Sivankutty (CPM)
136
Aruvikkara
 G Karthikeryan (INC)
137
Parassala
A T George (INC)
138
Kattakkada
N Shaktan (INC) 
139
Kovalam
George Mercier (INC) 
140
Neyyattinkara
Thampanoor Ravi (INC) 

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