Sunday, April 03, 2011

Six Reasons UDF will Win in Kerala

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Elections to Kerala Assembly will be held on April 13th. All the major parties have announced their candidates and campaigning is going on in full swing. Almost all the opinion polls that came out till now have predicted a majority for UDF. Here are my six reasons for UDF to come back to power in Kerala.
Starting 1980 elections, for the last three decades, Kerala has a history of voting out the ruling front. Five years of LDF rule with a Chief Minister constantly at war with party leadership and dissatisfaction among the people especially minority communities like Christians and Muslims, history is bound to happen – ruling government is voted out of power.
V.S Effect
In 2006, V.S effect helped LDF to win. This time, V.S effect is going to help UDF win. Let us see how. For the last 58 months V.S. Achuthanandan is the Chief Minister of Kerala. Just when 56 months after V.S. Achuthanandan became the Chief Minister he realized that all UDF leaders are either corrupt or sex offenders. He is going around Kerala asking people to give him one more opportunity so that he can arrest all these UDF leaders and put them behind bars. He has selected memory loss and it seems like V.S. Achuthanandan has forgotten that his own party secretary is involved in corruption charges and a former district secretary in a sex scandal. Now this character assassination of V.S. Achuthanandan of UDF leaders has made UDF workers work with unity never seen before and this is sure to get converted into seats. The halo of V.S. Achuthanandan as crusader against corruption is sure to backfire on LDF this time. 
Also people of Kerala will easily understand that it is a political gimmick. For those who have followed Kerala politics for long something similar happened in1996. A K Antony was the Chief Minster that time when Assembly elections were announced. UDF especially Congress party was in disarray that time with factionalism after Leader K Karunakaran was forced to resign as Chief Minister. Congress and UDF were in for major disaster in the upcoming polls and it was when A.K Antony announced arrack ban all over Kerala. The media and people were all saying that UDF will come back to power with majority of women voting for UDF. Yes, arrack ban helped to reduce the defeat margin, still the LDF got 80 out of 140 seats. Something similar is going to happen in 2011. 
LDF Misrule
You need to experience this to understand this. When LDF (read CPI-M) is in power there is two sets of rules – one for the party workers and its sympathizers and another for the common man. If a party worker or a sympathizer does anything wrong, the party will go any extend to protect them but if a common man does not obey the party leadership he will be harassed like anything. This was observed whenever LDF was in power and this is one of the reasons why LDF was never voted back to power. This “highhandedness” is beyond control this time around and is going to hurt LDF and CPI-M like never before. 
S-A-M-S Effect
I like to call it S-A-M-S Effect. It is Dr Sindhu Joy, A P Abdullakutty, Dr K.S Manoj, Sivaraman effect – all those four very young leaders that left CPI-M in the last 5 years. If they continued in CPI-M, there was a chance that they could have had a great political future. But why did they come out? They understood that CPI-M is a party going into the 21st century with the ideologies of 20th century and when they try to tell the leadership these facts they were sidelined and all of them came out of CPI-M to breathe some fresh air. 
Now we know about these four because they were leaders. Now there are thousands of other party workers and sympathizers who left the party because of rotten leadership and after understanding the hollowness of the ideology called “communism” as practiced by Kerala comrades. This decline in the party strength is going to be another major going against LDF in this election. 
Disunity in CPI-M
Even though CPI-M and LDF wont accept this in public, it is a fact that CPI(M) is a divided house today. There is lot of internal power struggle going on that and is sure to affect the prospects of the party and LDF in the coming election. 
There were lots of noises in UDF during the seat sharing and when the candidates were announced. But the personal attacks on UDF leaders by LDF leaders especially that of V.S Achuthanandan has united the UDF and has given fresh vigor in the campaigning that will surely be converted to seats. 
Religion/Caste Factor 
No election in India will be over without mentioning religion/caste and Kerala is no exception. LDF is in the wrong side of Caste/Religion factor in this election. Last five years too many comrades with their words and actions have antagonized various religion/caste especially minority communities like Muslims and Christians and it looks like there is going to be a polarization of those votes. If this polarization happens as most opinion polls predict I am afraid, LDF will be wiped out from most part of Central and North Kerala. 

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with most of your points regarding the chances of UDF . You have but discounted some factors working against UDF. Many Places UDF candidates are not great . Like the decision to renominate all stting MLa's , Rahul Gandhi List messing up the list. In many places UDF candidates are outsiders to the constituency . But still the arithemetic of the UDF alliance and minority support will give UDF victory.

April 04, 2011 5:37 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I Completely disagree with you,come May 13 Your opinions will be proved to be wrong..
Here are the 6 Reasons Why UDF Will lose this election;
(1)People have identified the corrupt Udf leaders:
R.Balakrishnapilla,Kerala Congress Leader and A former minister,is now in Poojapura central jail for making corruption in idamalayar project.
A.Raja,Who was telecom minister in upa govt,is now in tihar jail for making 1.74lakh crore corruption in 2g spectrum allocation
(2)People of kerala will Defenitely vote against Congress Led Upa govt which is pursuing anti people policies like price rise and petrol prise hike
(3)LDF Govt Social Welfare Schemes Like 2RS/Kg RICE TO 75 Lakh Families,Free House to 5lakh families under EMS Housing Scheme,
Free Health Insurance to 35 lakh families,Rising Minimum Support Price of Crops to 14rs,Farmers Debt Relief Commision etc etc
(4)People Will Definitely compare the dark age of 2001-2006 Udf rule&Golden age of 2006-11 Ldf rule
(5)This Is the Govt which is not involved in a single paise corruption
(6)People of kerala will vote for Ldf as there is a need for continuation of its Welfare and Development Policies
-Mohammed Absheer

April 06, 2011 4:03 PM  
Blogger Sachin R K said...

I think LDF will win. One major factor is the presence of SDPI candidates in the fray where Muslim League has strong presence. They will definitely cut into UDF votes. Another is that this time , the BJP votes are likely to fall in favour of LDF rather than UDF as in past , mainly to keep Muslim League out of power.

April 07, 2011 9:18 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If LDF wins, Mr. Achuthanandan will become the CM of Kerala who insulted Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan's sacrifice. God save Kerala !

April 08, 2011 8:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are not mentioning a single positive factor of UDF. Do not think negative factors of LDF will become positive factors for UDF. I feel neutrals will not cast their votes this time. If that happens and the voting percentage is below 75%, then LDF has chances to come back by at least 78 seats. Can you show me any article written by manorama, mathrubhumi, mangalam, deepika etc describing about an absolute UDF win? They are not 100% sure yet, what does that mean? VS still has the upper hand among youngsters and common men, even he was singled out and attacked by UDF leaders. If LDF leaders and CPIM central leadership declare him as next CM candidate and bring him back to PB before the elections, LDF graph go much higher.

I predict 55% chance to LDF with 75-80 seats, and 45% chance to UDF with same seats.

- Vijayakumar

April 11, 2011 1:05 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is every chance that LDF will win. In general, people are fed up with corruption. Congress led UDF is packed with so may corrupt leaders. At least, V.S Achuthanandan gives some hope. When you compare both fronts, LDF is always better. Even;most of the outgoing ministers & MLA's of LDF has shown execellent performance during their tenure. It is to be understood that there is no anti incumbency factor in kerala. Inspite of the biased reports & news artcles being published by most of the pro UDF mainstream media, educated people of kerala are fully aware of the real facts & will once again vote LDF to power.

April 12, 2011 7:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

what the F__ck Congress has been doing with Corrupted Govt and an inactive useless PM in centre...How many scandals u need. 2G,CWG....Congress has been looting the Common People of India for the past 50 years right from Nehru who was against RTI(right to Information) act. Why??? if it was passed that time then no Congressman would LOOT at will like this...Now its Lok Pal Bill it took only 4 Days(n0t 40 years) for the common people of India under Hazare to bend Congress....when all the people of India is sick and tired of CORRUPTION,,,,,, What f___ing action did congress take aginst corruption? After signing on UN convention against corruption 6 long years ago in 2005, our great PM MMS and congress is still sitting on it without ratifying it as a law…why??? AGAIN if it comes ur congress nethas can’t loot common people’s money……now specific to ur comments .which are the false allegation made by left?/ Abt Kunjalikutty u go to Calicut and ask any school kids they will tell u a nice story abt Ice CREAM and so on….he is one of the most corrupted person in Kerala politics
And finally u look at our great leader VS, after fighting Congress Ex minister Balakrishna Pillai in Bribery case for 22 years (read Twenty Two not two) VS send the Congress Noble man to CENTRAL JAIL IN Kerala......
So don’t try to confuse people by posting Blind Comments saying Congress took action on corruption,…the average voters and common men of Kerala are intelligent and are not blind

April 12, 2011 8:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your arguments are out of bias and no more than a schadenfreude. For an analysis to be grounded, it should not be selectively critical of policies and political parties. You have played to a gallery of UDF sympathists in disguise of a blogger and not to political readers. Scandals and INC immune to them? Rajmohan Unnithan is the uber-cool metrosexual for you! Ask for an opinion from any respectable, dignified woman in your family or neighborhood on Kunhalikkutty; and take a look at what you've uttered. Ashamed is the last thing you would feel, if not petrified! Party differences in CPM and not in INC--come on Brijesh, give us a break. Can you count how many leaders and groups are there in THE CONGRESS? No, by the time you finish counting, Murali might have switched camps!! "Antagonised Muslims and Christians" -- really? and for what?? For speaking the truth...that missionary run educational institutions in Kerala have to be socially responsible and not just profit driven? Well that's what an average middle class family would want to hear a thousand times, dear political scientist! That's hard fact. Antony banned arrack, aiming the lower middle class and middle class women voters. Today, can you count the number of illegal distilleries and toddy shops that sell hooch? check for the highest per capita liquor consuming state in India to get stats right. Imposition of the ban was a responsiblity that the Oommen Chandy govt that came to power failed too. Now Kerala has passed five years with no treasury over draft even when Center has cut short all that it can...and has more to terrorise us (Food Security Bill). I do not know how individual personalities define the electoral performance of a party, and for that matter, influence on an electorate as Kerala by a Sindhu Joy or Oommen Chandy or Chennithala or Sudheeran or Abdullakkutty or any other is largely contained within individual constituencies. Let us also understand that, thanks to high-voltage media limelight, the voters are exposed to as much information (both for and against each candidate) as you and me are. Let us not assume that 94% literacy is farce. Misrule -- Take a step back and watch what the United Pirates Alliance (UPA-II) has done to the image of our country. You believe that buying votes, allowing allies to plunder the exchequer through clandestine deals, downplaying and silently applauding tax evasion and ill gotten wealth is the politics of the century? Sad. Not just because we still have people who love politics like you playing fiddle to these ideologies, but for a wasted opportunity to raise a voice of dissent. CPM and for that matter no political party which believes in ethical politics, will be able to transform the way congress has done to be the party of the century. For a moment, ask yourself, how confident are you at the moment to say that UPA II will be voted to power if the wafer thin majority crumbles?? (assuming that INC doesnt buy votes as before). The half baked truths and selectively covered lies in your blog will not help to gauge the political IQ of an electorate as Kerala. For that you should break free from the illusion and approach facts with ambivalence and a sense of responsiblity and not the sheer joy of a schadenfreude, Brijesh. You are at liberty to not publish this comment.

April 13, 2011 8:14 AM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

Anon @12:59 PM & 12:14 AM
When I wrote something similar for Lok Sabha election and Panchayat elections I got similar comments. All I wrote back was let us wait till results are out. After results are out none of them who put similar comments like you two never came back. If LDF did do many things why did LDF lost very badly in Lok Sabha election and Panchayat elections? There should be some reasons for that, right?

I was thinking of you when I wrote this one. We meet in my blog for all elections starting from 2006. Let us wait for another 30 more days to find out who is correct. In 2006 you were correct and in 2009 I was correct and let us see who is correct this time:)

April 13, 2011 8:50 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks Brijesh,

Just 2 days to go for the counting. Still the general talk and the survey results shows unclear trends.

Based on that I might change it to 50-50 chance to LDF and UDF with 72-80 seats. There may be changes and shifting in both fronts as well, if the margin is so close.


May 11, 2011 9:40 PM  

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