Monday, May 18, 2009

Lok Sabha Election Results from Kerala – Comparing Actual Results with My Predictions

Lok Sabha elections are over and Indian people have decided who should be ruling them for the next five years. People of Kerala also have decided who should be their 20 representatives to the Loksabha. Every time an election comes to the Lok Sabha, one of my favorite things is predicting the winners and once the result is out analyzing how close I was. This time also I did the predictions and this post is a comparison of my prediction and the actual results. 

This time I have got around 17 of the 20 constituencies correct (85%). I was wrong in Palakkad, Kozhikode and Vadakara. With the victory margin less than 2000 in case of Palakkad and less than 1000 in case of Kozhikode, it could have gone either way but I was never even close at predicting the comprehensive win Mullapally Ramachandran had in Vadakara. So here is what I predicted and the actual results. To go to the actual page on my blog where I made the prediction on 4th of April click here. 



Predicted Winner: Shashi Tharoor (UDF)

My reasoning: Dr Shashi Tharoor is going to win from Trivandrum with a very good margin. His victory will be similar to the one achieved by former President of India KR Narayanan from Ottapalam Lok sabha constituency. Ottapalam Loksabha constituency a bastion of Left Front voted in favor of KR Narayanan for three consecutive times and after that neither Congress nor UDF ever won from there. Similar thing is going to happen in Trivandrum. Like KR Narayanan, Dr Tharoor has a great personality and charisma to take him through. Add this to the disunity within the Left Front (CPI-CPI(M) misunderstandings), presence of a large number of educated neutral voters and the presence of BSP candidate Dr Neelalohidadasan Nadar are all going to hurt Left Front. 

Actual Winner: Shashi Tharoor (UDF) won by a margin of 99,998 votes. I think i was spot on in this constituency. I was expecting a majority between 50,000 to 75,000 votes but I never expected majority to touch this 1 lakh margin. 



Predicted Winner: A Sampath (LDF) 

My reasoning: Since 1991, only LDF has won from this constituency (formerly Chirayinkeezhu) and this time also after reorganization of constituencies also this trend is not going to change. Majority of the people in this constituency are farm laborers and agricultural workers and they are always hardcore supporters of LDF. Vast majority of the panchayats and municipalities in this constituency are under LDF control and only some kind of miracle can take that seat away from LDF. 

Actual Winner: A Sampath (LDF); the above reasons coupled by wrong selection of candidate led to the doom of UDF here. Had this seat been contested by Congress stalwarts like MM Hassan, UDF could have easily won this seat with the anti-LDF wave that was blowing across the state. 



Predicted Winner: Peethambarakurup (UDF)

My reasoning: Another stronghold of LDF for a long time but there is a good chance that UDF will win this time. In the newly reorganized Kollam constituency the LDF strongholds of Karuanagapally and Kunathoor were taken away and much more neutral Punalur and Chadayamangalam were added. Along with these factors the dissatisfaction among the local RSP leaders and workers for not giving the seat to RSP, support of former Minister and MLA from Kollam Babu Divakaran and the unity of various factions of Congress party in Kollam will make Peethambara Kurup a winner. 

Actual Winner: Peethambarakurup (UDF); the reorganization of the constituencies have hurt LDF here badly. The general dissatisfaction of the people of Kerala against CPI(M) leadership also helped Peethambarakurup, the most trusted lieutenant of leader K Karunakaran enter the Parliament for the first time. 



Predicted Winner: Anto Antony (UDF)

My reasoning: The LDF leadership itself wont be having lot of expectations this time from Central Kerala where Christian population have a major say in the winner. Through the actions in the last three years LDF especially the CPI(M) has antagonized Christians and church and that will be clearly reflected in the seats from Pathanamthitta to Thrissur. This seat is going to be on top of the sure seat of UDF. 

Actual Winner: Anto Antony (UDF) by a margin of 1,11,205 votes. Even a small kid who doesn’t have any knowledge of politics will predict the result of this constituency. LDF from the day one after taking office has antagonized the Christians, the church and their leaders and for the insults the Christians and their leadership was waiting for an opportunity. When the opportunity came they showed their anger towards LDF by voting Anto Antony. 



Predicted Winner: Kodikunnil Suresh (UDF) 

My reasoning: Add to the Christian factor to the NSS (Nair Service Society) factor who is at loggerheads with ruling LDF things get easy for Kodikunnil Suresh of UDF. All the assembly constituencies in Mavelikkara Lok Sabha seat except Kunathoor are strongholds of UDF and it is going to be clean sweep for Kodikunnil Suresh. 

Actual Winner: Kodikunnil Suresh (UDF) won by a majority of 48,239 votes. He was able to get majority in five out of seven assembly constituencies including Kuttanad and Kunathoor considered being stronghold of LDF. 



Predicted Winner: KC Venugopal (UDF)

 My reasoning: This is the constituency where Congress leader VM Sudheeran has scored a hatrick of wins and was defeated by a very slender margin to Dr KS Manoj. This time fight is between Dr Manoj and former minister KC Venugopal. Addition of left leaning Karunagappally to Allupuzha should give a lot of hope for LDF this time. This is the constituency where group fight has hit its peak in CPI(M) and it is going to hurt their chance a lot. Also CPI has lot of supporters in this constituency and how well they campaign for a CPI(M) candidate is also an issue. These along with the support of the UDF partners like JSS, KC Venugopal should rope home a victory. 

Actual Winner: KC Venugopal (UDF) won by a majority of 57,791 votes. He had lead in all the seven constituencies. An incredible thing that was unimaginable a few years back as most of the areas in this constituency is considered as the most fertile ground of communists. The group fighting in CPI(M) and the image of KC Venugopal has done the trick this time. 


Predicted Winner: Jose K Mani (UDF) 

My reasoning: With the reorganization of the Kottayam constituency it is very tough for LDF to retain the seat in the near future. The two constituencies that are added are strong hold of UDF. In the newly reconstituted constituency there is only one assembly constituency Vaikom that can be called a LDF stronghold. This alone will make Jose K Mani the next MP of Kottayam 

Actual Winner: Jose K Mani (UDF) won by a margin of 55,111 votes. I reiterate what I wrote last month – with the reorganization of the Kottayam constituency only a miracle can make LDF win that seat in the future. 



Predicted Winner: PT Thomas (UDF) 

My reasoning: A constituency that has large number of Christians and working class people that works in the plantation area.  A lot of these plantation workers are from Tamil Nadu and AIADMK followers and since AIADMK and CPI(M) are alliance partners in Tamil Nadu that will work good for LDF. But influence of church and voting pattern of Christians will far outweigh any other factors in this constituency and that will result in the victory of PT Thomas. 

Actual Winner: PT Thomas (UDF) won by a margin of 74,685 votes.  This result is a perfect pointer to gauge the anger of Christian community towards LDF and its leaders. PT Thomas should dedicate this victory to the likes of MA Baby, Sudhakaran, Sindhu Joy and Pinarayi Vijayan, who never lost an opportunity to humiliate church and its leaders. 



Predicted Winner: KV Thomas (UDF)

My reasoning: Sure seat for UDF. Prof KV Thomas is going to win big time from there. Except last Loksabha election (where there was a strong current against the UDF government) and one time Prof KV Thomas was defeated Xavier Arakkal in 1996 this constituency was always been with UDF during the general elections. The history is not going to change this time with Congress fielding a Latin Catholic candidate (majority community in the constituency) and former state Minister Prof KV Thomas. His opponent Sindhu Joy has antagonized the church and Christians so much with her actions during the last three years that she is going to lose big time here. 

Actual Winner: KV Thomas (UDF) won by a margin of 11,790 votes. Even though KV Thomas won I was totally wrong in my assessment. While doing the predictions, the very fact that Alwaye assembly constituency was no longer with Eranakulam never caught my attention. Alwaye was one of the assembly constituencies that always gave a good majority to the UDF candidates and I realized this only after the counting was done. Also there was resentment among the voters of Eranakulam against KV Thomas for a variety of reasons. At the end KV Thomas won but the performance of Sindhu Joy was really impressive. 


Predicted Winner: KP Dhanapalan (UDF)

My reasoning:  Another UDF bastion and this time also this is not going to change. KP Dhanapalan is going win with an handsome majority over his rival UP Joseph of CPI(M). 

Actual Winner: KP Dhanapalan (UDF) won by a margin of 71,678 votes. Dhanaplan was able to get majority in six out of the seven assembly constituencies that form the Chalakudy Lok Sabha constituency. 



Predicted Winner: PC Chacko (UDF)

My reasoning: Another constituency that will favor UDF with the reorganization of constituencies. Also when ever UDF has fielded a Christian candidate (except last election) they have won and this time also there won’t be a difference. Also CPI-CPI(M) fight will take a toll on the number of votes CPI candidate CN Jayadevan gets from Thrissur. 

Actual Winner: PC Chacko (UDF) won by a majority of 25,150 votes. The CN Jayadevan can take credit that he is the CPI candidate who lost by the least margin. 



Predicted Winner: PK Biju (LDF) 

My reasoning: Should be a close fight. At the end the LDF should be winning. This is the area where there are lot of dissidence within the CPI(M) and the winning margin will be greatly impacted by how good the CPI(M) is able to keep the dissidence in bay

Actual Winner: PK Biju (LDF) won by a margin of 20,959 votes. If everything was going in favor of LDF, Biju could have won by over 1 lakh votes. 



Predicted Winner: Satheeshan Pacheni (UDF)

My reasoning: Presence of MR Murali under the banner of Left Co-ordination Committee is going to hurt the chances of LDF badly here. MR Murali is going to get a good chunk of votes that could have gone to MB Rajesh of LDF. Murali is very popular in areas in and around Shornur, Ottapalam and Pattambi areas of that constituency. This split in LDF vote and with the support of traditional UDF votes Satheeshan Pacheni is going to win the race. 

Actual Winner: MB Rajesh (LDF) by a margin of 1,819 votes. I was expecting around 30,000 votes for Left Co-ordination Committee leader MR Murali and I was wrong in my assessment. Satheeshan Pacheni has thus tasted hat trick of defeats now and may be the next MI Shanavas of Congress. A Wyanad may be waiting for Satheeshan in the near future. 



Predicted Winner: ET Mohammad Basheer (UDF)

My reasoning: The constituency that was in news even before the actual campaign started; the constituency where for the first time PDP chairman Abdul Nasar Madhani and CPI(M) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan shared the dias; the constituency where LDF has fielded an independent supported by PDP Hussein Randathani with the hope to make some inroads into the Muslim vote bank there. Whatever be the impact of the CPI(M)-PDP nexus the former Minister and UDF candidate ET Muhammad Basheer is goingto win hands down from this constituency. Don’t be surprised if he gets the highest winning margin from Kerala

Actual Winner: ET Mohammad Basheer (UDF) won by a margin of 84,131 votes. The tie-up of CPI(M) with PDP was blessing in disguise for Muslim League and UDF here. This tie-up estranged traditional LDF voters from LDF while united the Muslim League workers to work tirelessly for the victory of former education minister of Kerala ET. 



Predicted Winner: E Ahamad (UDF)

My reasoning: Union Minister E Ahamad is fighting out with TK Hamza here in Malappuram. Last time the victory was for TK Hamza but this time things might not go well for TK Hamza. The image of E Ahamed and the stuff he has done as central minister to that district should help him win this time. Also Muslim League is making sure that they have left no stone unturned to capture the seat they lost for the first time during last elections. 

Actual Winner: E Ahamad (UDF) won by a margin of 1,15,568 votes. E Ahamad lead in all the seven assembly constituencies of Malappuram – another solid proof of the tie-up between LDF and PDP backfiring on LDF candidates. 



Predicted Winner: PA Mohammad Riyaz (LDF)

My reasoning: The reorganization has made Kozhikode Parliamentary constituency a LDF stronghold and if no major surprise happens PA Mohammad Riyas is going to win hands down from there. Whenever UDF has won from this seat they depended heavily on the constituencies Kalpatta, Sulthan Batheri and Thiruvambady. These constituencies are no longer with Kozhikode. On the other hand the newly added constituencies Beypur and Elathur are LDF strongholds. So this constituency should be a cake walk for LDF. 

Actual Winner: Raghavan (UDF) won by a slender margin of over 900 votes. There was lot of dissatisfaction among the LDF workers on the candidature of Riyaz and this has helped Congress win the seat. While picking Riyaz as winner I was thinking that the dissent among the LDF workers will melt as the election date approaches but it never happened. Geographically LDF should have never lost in the reorganized Kozhikode Lok Sabha seat but the political reasons uprooted them this time. 



Predicted Winner: MI Shanavaz (UDF) 

My reasoning: Before K Muralidharan entered the fray in Wayanad it was a sure seat for UDF. Things have changed with his entry and now it is a three way contest. It is going to be a tough contest and the victory margin of the winning candidate may be lowest of all the 20 constituencies. Don’t be surprised if what happened in Muvattupuzha constituency (PC Thomas winning defeating both UDF and LDF candidate and winning by a margin of less than 2000 votes) during the last election happens in Wayanad. As of now I will put my money on UDF. 

Actual Winner: MI Shanavaz (UDF) won by a majority of 1,50,273 votes. I was again totally wrong in predicting the margin. At the end, Muralidharan finished third with less than a lakh vote and MI Shanavaz won by a record margin. This victory of MI Shanavas again shows that there is no political life for a third front in Kerala. I feel sorry for CPI leaders who fought hard to get Ponnani seat to be satisfied with Wyanad seat and lose that by over 1.5 lakh votes. 



Predicted Winner: P Sathi Devi (LDF)

My reasoning: Another constituency like Wyanad where a candidate is making all the difference in the election result. If Mullapally Ramachandran was not the UDF candidate and Janatha Dal was still the part of LDF Vadakara could have been a cake walk for LDF. But not anymore. There is no way LDF is going to lose Vadakara but they may have to work double hard to win this time around. 

Actual Winner: Mullapally Ramachandran (UDF) won by a thumping margin of 56,666 votes. Still I am not able to digest this one. This should go in the history as one of the major upsets in the electoral politics of Kerala. The support of Janatha Dal was so crucial in this victory. The UDF got majority in Koothuparambu the citadel of CPI(M) sending shock waves to LDF leadership. This victory is the result of the clean image of Mullapally and strong discontent of the CPI(M) followers towards their leaders. 



Predicted Winner: P Karunakaran (LDF)

My reasoning: No prize for guessing the winner here – P Karunakaran all the way. Even before the campaign started even the UDF leaders will agree – Kasargord is going to elect LDF this time 

Actual Winner: P Karunakaran (LDF) won by a margin of 64,426 votes. This was a foregone conclusion even before the elections were announced. 



Predicted Winner: P Sudhakaran (UDF)

My reasoning: If P Sudhakaran was not the UDF candidate this seat was a sure seat of LDF. K Sudhakaran who has fought and won a lot of battles against CPI(M) in their strong hold is pitted against a new comer KK Ragesh of CPI(M). Sudhakaran’s political experience and his ability to win political battles at enemies den should get him through this time against KK Ragesh. 

Actual Winner: P Sudhakaran (UDF) won by a majority of 43,150 votes. If I am asked to name one Congress leader in Kerala who has the ability to confront CPI(M) in its den I will pick P Sudhakaran as my first choice. The support Sudhakaran got from former MP from Kannur, Abdullah Kutty was one of the most important factor in this victory. 

See you all during the next elections with more predictions and analysis. 

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Blogger Babin said...

Good predictions and analysis... Definetly much better than any anaylis that i saw in news papers/tv channels...
Where you were wrong, the margins were paper thin..except for vadakara which was the biggest upset..

Good Job! Waiting to see your next predictions come another election...

May 18, 2009 4:31 AM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

You are one of the many whom I meet and talk just during elections. Yes we will meet again in another 2 years:)

May 18, 2009 4:43 AM  
Anonymous Bijukuttan said...

nee aaloru puliya...
predict chaithu kalanjalo..

NDTV il oru chance unde.


May 20, 2009 8:01 AM  

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