Saturday, April 04, 2009

Lok Sabha Elections 2009: Predicting the Winners from Kerala - UDF (15), LDF (5) and BJP (0)

Click here to see the Winners from Kerala for the Lok Sabha Election 2009.

Elections to the Lok Sabha are just days away and election fever is catching up everywhere. The newspapers and TV channels are full of election news, interviews and debate. Major political parties are trying all the tricks in their kitty to win the seats. Election time is also prediction time. Predicting who will win and who will loose. I did that for the last assembly elections in Kerala and here I am again predicting the results for the 20 seats in Kerala. Let us start from the South.

Trivandrum - Shashi Tharoor (UDF)

Dr Shashi Tharoor is going to win from Trivandrum with a very good margin. His victory will be similar to the one achieved by former President of India KR Narayanan from Ottapalam Lok sabha constituency. Ottapalam Loksabha constituency a bastion of Left Front voted in favor of KR Narayanan for three consecutive times and after that Congress nor UDF never won from there. Similar thing is going to happen in Trivandrum. Like KR Narayanan, Dr Tharoor has a great personality and charisma to take him through. Add this to the disunity within the Left Front (CPI-CPI(M) misunderstandings), presence of a large number of educated neutral voters and the presence of BSP candidate Dr Neelalohidadasan Nadar are all going to hurt Left Front.

Attingal – A Sampath – (LDF)

Since 1991, only LDF has won from this constituency (formerly Chirayinkeezhu) and this time also after reorganization of constituencies also this trend is not going to change. Majority of the people in this constituency are farm laborers and agricultural workers and they are always hardcore supporters of LDF. Vast majority of the panchayats and municipalities in this constituency are under LDF control and only some kind of miracle can take that seat away from LDF.

Kollam – Peethambarakurup (UDF)

Another stronghold of LDF for a long time but there is a good chance that UDF will win this time. In the newly reorganized Kollam constituency the LDF strongholds of Karuanagapally and Kunathoor were taken away and much more neutral Punalur and Chadayamangalam were added. Along with these factors the dissatisfaction among the local RSP leaders and workers for not giving the seat to RSP, support of former Minister and MLA from Kollam Babu Divakaran and the unity of various factions of Congress party in Kollam will make Peethambara Kurup a winner.

Pathanamthitta – Anto Antony (UDF)

The LDF leadership itself wont be having lot of expectations this time from Central Kerala where Christian population have a major say in the winner. Through the actions in the last three years LDF especially the CPI(M) has antagonized Christians and church and that will be clearly reflected in the seats from Pathanamthitta to Thrissur. This seat is going to be on top of the sure seat of UDF.

Mavelikkara – Kodikunnil Suresh (UDF)

Add to the Christian factor to the NSS (Nair Service Society) factor who is at loggerheads  with ruling LDF things get easy for Kodikunnil Suresh of UDF. All the assembly constituencies in Mavelikkara LokSabha seat except Kunathoor are strongholds of UDF and it is going to be clean sweep for Kodikunnil Suresh.

Allapuzha – K C Venugopal (UDF)

This is the constituency where Congress leader VM Sudheeran has scored a hatrick of wins and was defeated by a very slender margin to Dr KS Manoj. This time fight is between Dr Manoj and former minister KC Venugopal. Addition of left leaning Karunagappally to Allupuzha should give a lot of hope for LDF this time. This is the constituency where group fight has hit its peak in CPI(M) and it is going to hurt their chance a lot. Also CPI has lot of supporters in this constituency and how well they campaign for a CPI(M) candidate is also an issue. These along with the support of the UDF partners like JSS, KC Venugopal should rope home a victory.

Kottayam  - Jose K Mani (UDF)

With the reorganization of the Kottayam constituency it is very tough for LDF to retain the seat in the near future. The two constituencies that are added are strong hold of UDF. In the newly reconstituted constituency there is only one assembly constituency Vaikom that can be called a LDF stronghold. This alone will make Jose K Mani the next MP of Kottayam

Idukki – PT Thomas (UDF)

A constituency that has large number of Christians and working class people that works in the plantation area.  A lot of these plantation workers are from Tamil Nadu and AIADMK followers and since AIADMK and CPI(M) are alliance partners in Tamil Nadu that will work good for LDF. But influence of church and voting pattern of Christians will far outweigh any other factors in this constituency and that will result in the victory of PT Thomas.

Eranakulam – Prof KV Thomas (UDF)

Sure seat for UDF. Prof KV Thomas is going to win big time from there. Except last Loksabha election (where there was a strong current against the UDF government) and one time Prof KV Thomas was defeated Xavier Arakkal in 1996 this constituency was always been with UDF during the general elections. The history is not going to change this time with Congress fielding a Latin Catholic candidate (majority community in the constituency) and former state Minister Prof KV Thomas. His opponent Sindhu Joy has antagonized the church and Christians so much with her actions during the last three years that she is going to lose big time here.

Chalakudy – KP Dhanapalan (UDF)

 Another UDF bastion and this time also this is not going to change. KP Dhanapalan is going win with an handsome majority over his rival UP Joseph of CPI(M). 

Thrissur – PC Chacko (UDF)

Another constituency that will favor UDF with the reorganization of constituencies. Also when ever UDF has fielded a Christian candidate (except last election) they have won and this time also there wont be a difference. Also CPI-CPI(M) fight will take a toll on the number of votes CPI candidate CN Jayadevan gets from Thrissur.

Alathur – PK Biju (LDF)

Should be a close fight. At the end the LDF should be winning. This is the area where there are lot of dissidence within  the CPI(M) and the winning margin will be greatly impacted by how good the CPI(M) is able to keep the dissidence in bay.

Palakkad – Satheeshan Pacheni (UDF)

Presence of MR Murali under the banner of Left Co-ordination Committee is going to hurt the chances of LDF badly here. MR Murali is going to get a good chunk of votes that could have gone to MB Rajesh of LDF. Murali is very popular in areas in and around Shornur, Ottapalam and Pattambi areas of that constituency. This split in LDF vote and with the support of traditional UDF votes Satheeshan Pacheni is going to win the race.

Ponnani – ET Mohammad Basheer (UDF)

The constituency that was in news even before the actual campaign started; the constituency where for the first time PDP chairman Abdul Nasar Madhani and CPI(M) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan shared the dias; the constituency where LDF has fielded an independent supported by PDP Hussein Randathani with the hope to make some inroads into the Muslim vote bank there. Whatever be the impact of the CPI(M)-PDP nexus the former Minister and UDF candidate ET Muhammad Basheer is going to win hands down from this constituency. Don’t be surprised if he gets the highest winning margin from Kerala.

Malappuram – E Ahamed (UDF)

Union Minister E Ahamad is fighting out with TK Hamza here in Malappuram. Last time the victory was for TK Hamza but this time things might not go well for TK Hamza. The image of E Ahamed and the stuff he has done as central minister to that district should help him win this time. Also Muslim League is making sure that they have left no stone unturned to capture the seat they lost for the first time during last elections.

Kozhikode – PA Mohammad Riyas (LDF)

The reorganization has made Kozhikode Parliamentary constituency a LDF stronghold and if no major surprise happens PA Mohammad Riyas is going to win hands down from there. Whenever UDF has won from this seat they depended heavily on the constituencies Kalpatta, Sulthan Batheri and Thiruvambady. These constituencies are no longer with Kozhikode. On the other hand the newly added constituencies Beypur and Elathur are LDF strongholds. So this constituency should be a cake walk for LDF.

Wayanad – MI Shanavas (UDF)

Before K Muralidharan entered the fray in Wayanad it was a sure seat for UDF. Things have changed with his entry and now it is a three way contest. It is going to be a tough contest and the victory margin of the winning candidate may be lowest of all the 20 constituencies. Don’t be surprised if what happened in Muvattupuzha constituency (PC Thomas winning defeating both UDF and LDF candidate and winning by a margin of less than 2000 votes) during the last election happens in Wayanad. As of now I will put my money on UDF.

Vadakara – P Sathi Devi (LDF)

Another constituency like Wyanad where a candidate is making all the difference in the election result. If Mullapally Ramachandran was not the UDF candidate and Janatha Dal was still the part of LDF Vadakara could have been a cake walk for LDF. But not anymore. There is no way LDF is going to lose Vadakara but they may have to work double hard to win this time around.

Kasargord – P Karunakaran (LDF) 

No prize for guessing the winner here – P Karunakaran all the way. Even before the campaign started even the UDF leaders will agree – Kasargord is going to elect LDF this time.

Kannur – P Sudhakaran (UDF)

If P Sudhakaran was not the UDF candidate this seat was a sure seat of LDF. K Sudhakaran who has fought and won a lot of battles against CPI(M) in their strong hold is pitted against a new comer KK Ragesh of CPI(M). Sudhakaran’s political experience and his ability to win political battles at enemies den should get him through this time against KK Ragesh.

To make the long strory short here is what my take on results of Loksabha elections - UDF (15) and LDF (5).

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Anonymous sreenath g said...

Mohd Riyas is a very weak candidate.... if ur prediction of Shashi Tharoor, a so called strong candidate is going to win from tvm, why do u favour weak candidates like Mohd Riyas and Jose k mani.... ?

April 06, 2009 8:30 AM  
Anonymous sreenath g said...

i think ur prediction is going to be wrong in the case of KAnnur and kollam for sure....

Hopefully idukki, kottayam, pathanamthitta, Palakkad(my home town) Vayanad (Mr Muralidharan is a force to reckon with like mr nadar in tvm)...

Alapuzha Eranakulam Thrissur & malapuram districts.... i dont know....

April 06, 2009 8:36 AM  
Anonymous sreenath g said...

Malappuram district... 2 closely fouht seats... especially ponnani...

if ur arguement that christians will favour UDF, then the corollay is that the muslims in malappuram will back LDF.... is nt it ?

My guess is a 10-10... ie; UdF 10 LDF 10...

April 06, 2009 8:41 AM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

Mohd Riyas may be a weak candidate but the topography of the new Kozhikode constituency is such that it is going to be very tough for an UDF candidate to win.

Regarding Kollam - if it was the old Kollam constituency I could have picked P Rajendran of LDF. Kannur- I believe candidature of Sudhakaran can make a big difference.

Ponnani - I still believe Muslim League has much more votes and supporters than Madhani's PDP and so Ponnani and Malappuram UDF will win this time.

April 06, 2009 9:08 AM  
Blogger thajudeen said...

regarding ponnani, i believe same reorganisation of constituencies has made the malappuram constituency stronghold of UDF... that is why E ahamed chose malapuram instead of his sitting seat ponnani.. is nt it ?

i believe E ahamed will get a better winning margin than mr. Basheer. ur arguement that Mr.Basheer will get highest margin seems wierd to me...

i believe k k ragesh is a strong candidate in kannur constituency from where all the strong men of the present day CPIM hail from... arguably the best candidate they can field in a constituency like kannur... the defeat of mr. ragesh will be a very big blow to them... perhaps a much bigger blow than all the 19 other constituencies taken together..

April 07, 2009 7:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

the above comment is made by sreenath....

April 07, 2009 7:18 AM  
Anonymous sreenath g said...

i think the choice of candidates like peethambarakurup, satheesan pacheni etc will hit congress badly...

not to mention the instances of kv thomas and shanimol usman..

even m i shanavas is not a good candidate i think...

April 07, 2009 7:22 AM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

Yes I agree with you.. The selection of candidates were very bad from Congress. If selection of candidates were better it could have been a clean sweep for Congress.

April 07, 2009 7:30 AM  
Anonymous sreenath g said...

Ningalude vishwasam ningale rakshikkatte....

April 07, 2009 12:16 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't expect as Usual...try to dig into the smallest units and then assumption. Election process in kerala is un predictable.. Many undercurrents are happening...Try to be a part of any party and start digging...

There will be many elements, some are known to every one and some un known.

Simple example, Mohd Riyas (Mohd Riyas is a very weak candidate). Then why did CPM fought to get that seat?.

He is just a DYFI leader that too in Calicut not state level.

Many reasons are there

at any cause margin for the winner will be not more than 50k in calicut r8?

Janathadal left ldf

it have arround 50k votes in calicut

so now LDF and UDF have equal chances

do to CPM internal problems and worst performances of GOVT, they will lose arround 100k votes that is max.

So UDF have winning chances.

A fraction of UDF will be doing under currents-10k votes for LDF

PDP- have arround-40k votes in calicut this will flow into LDF

Due to ommen chandy's mouth NCP turn against UDF...NCP have a strong base in calicut. sources says around 80k (Mr Muralies Constituency).

BJP have a strong candidate to take of some UDF votes arround 20k.

Vyapara Vyavasayee President T Nasurudin will Take around -40k UDF votes. He have a strong base. Finally MR Riyas have a great chance for winning comparing to Ragavan. This is the reason why LDF take this seat out from Janathadal!!

When we dig like this even more depth, we need to change the present thought. This also may change in coming days.

Winning an election is just winning the play. By knowing the play we can win easily even if we don't have good ground support...It is all LUCK

April 07, 2009 12:18 PM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

Anon - you are absolutely correct that so many undercurrents will be a factor in an elections.

about the comment that CPI(M) candidate is not strong in Kozhikide - there is a saying for CPI(M) candidates that there party machinery is so well oiled tat even if you make a "kutti choool" as candidate they will win and the present candidate may win for the same reason. even though he may not be strong the CPI(M)machinery will work overtime to make him a winner. This is my take on this.

April 07, 2009 8:38 PM  
Blogger girishell said...

Brijesh.Christians in Kerala seem to be voting as one block and Muslims seem to be doing the same.
Is that really secularism.

Hindus seem to be all over the place with no real agenda or voice.If they try to be one voting block they are somehow non secular.

April 08, 2009 5:41 PM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

things like destruction of a place of worship of a minority community by majority community should be condemned. Aggressive pursuit of Hindutva is dangerous and that is what is what should be opposed.

April 09, 2009 12:59 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

All those idiots who were voted from Trivandrum has done nothing for the district. We voted for the flamboyant long-hairlocks guy - Panniyan ravindran last time and the first speech made by him was for bringing and airport to kannur! Moron!
Before that, it was M V Raghavan and frankly speaking I havent seen him in trivandrum at all. Moron!
I see the same for Shashi tharoor. The ad goes that he shall be the next krishna menon, the foreign minister of india. Phew! And that is if Congress wins at the centre. That is a big IF! Anyway, is Tharoor going to bring diplomacy to the war between Trivandrum and Sri lanka? Moron!
I want neelalohitha dasan to win! I want to hear more molestation cases of female IAS officers... kwooool!

April 09, 2009 8:05 AM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

Anon @12.05 AM
We have voted a lot of politicians, right? Now let us take a risk by electing some one who is not a politician. What will be the worst case? He also wont do anything for the constituency. I think it is high time to take that risk. We have nothing to loose.

I want neelalohitha dasan to win! I want to hear more molestation cases of female IAS officers... LOL

April 09, 2009 8:08 AM  
Blogger Nair Tea Stall said...

Hello Brijesh.. Good Work! We are also predicting the winners from a numbers standpoint. We have already projected TVM. We are calling it much closer. We might put off predicting the rest of the seats till after polling. Would be fun to have something to read after polling.

April 10, 2009 11:57 PM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

Nair Tea Stall
Since your prediction is related to percentage of votes polled it is a better idea to wait till the elections are over

April 11, 2009 2:21 AM  
Anonymous hari said...

The polling at trivandrum was the lowest. That means, shashi tharoor aint got a chance. he has already booked a flight back to the US via capetown. At least, I hope he has :)
all the government employees were out of town visiting their hometowns during the extended holidays and none turned up at the polling booth. morons!
and shashi tharoor is now fighting a court battle for asking people to hold their hands like the americans when the indian national anthem was sung. he is coke drinking, green house gas burping moron! what a pathetic freak!

April 22, 2009 12:28 PM  
Anonymous PRADEEP said...

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM its going to be P K KRISHNADAS BJP...provided cpm didn't vote for taroor. otherwise tharoor has no chance...he will get 1,90,000 votes.

April 24, 2009 11:17 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

LDF (TVPM,Attingal,Kollam,Kottayam,Ernakulam,Idukki,Chalakkudi,Alathur,Palakkad,Kozhikode,Vadagara,Kasargode,Kannur)

UDF (Pathanamthitta, Mavelikkara, Alappuzha, Trissur)

Wayanad, Ponnani, Malappuram (un-predictable...but favoring LDF)

- JK Vijayakumar, Kollam

May 15, 2009 2:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

LDF (TVPM,Attingal,Kollam,Kottayam,

UDF (Pathanamthitta,
Mavelikkara, Alappuzha, Trissur)

Wayanad, Ponnani, Malappuram
but favoring LDF)

- JK Vijayakumar, Kollam

May 15, 2009 2:49 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That means I predict 13 for LDF 4 for UDF and 3 un-predictable (but favoring LDF). Read my above posting...LDF should get 13-16 and UDF can 4-7 seats...

JK Vijayakumar, Kollam

May 15, 2009 2:58 AM  
Blogger muneer said...

I all read above comments...very interesting. None other than Kasaragod seat can assure for LDF. But Vadagara, Alathur, Palakkad, Attingal will stand LDF side.
For UDF, Ponnani, Malappuram, Trissur, Challakkudy, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Pattanamthitta, Mavelikkara, and Alappuzha are 100% sure. Wayanadu and Trivandrum favor them. The remaining seats kannur, Kollam, Edukki and Kozhikkode are unpredictable.

May 15, 2009 8:41 PM  

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