Saturday, March 14, 2009

Lok Sabha Elections 2009 – Advantage UPA in South India

It is election time in India. India is going to polls to elect a new central government that will serve India and her interests for the next five years. It is being held in five phases on April 16th, April 22nd & April 23rd (Phase 2), April 30th, May 7th and May 13th.

Who is going to win the elections? With so many political parties, so many political alliances that gets formed every other day it is a tough proposition to predict the winners. But let me give it a try. Let me take each state in India and try to predict the number of seats ruling Congress lead UPA, opposition BJP lead NDA and Communist led Third front will win from each state. Here are my predictions for the first south Indian states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra.

ANDHRA PRADESH 

Praja Rajyam Party (PRP), formed by megastar Chiranjeevi is going to have a huge impact on the outcome of election results in Andhra. PRP may not win a lot of seats but the votes it garners will decide the fate of a lot of candidates from ruling Congress and Telugu Desam (TDP) lead “Grand Alliance”. During the last elections in 2004, Congress lead front (that included Left parties and Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS)) swept the polls. This year the Congress party will be very happy if they could retain half of those seats they won last time. Anti-incumbency against YSR lead government and lack of good coalition is going to hurt Congress chances very badly this time. On the other hand the “Grand Alliance” lacks a common manifesto and each party has their own interests in this coalition. Lack of common manifesto and PRP are some factors the TDP lead front won’t be doing that great in Andhra Pradesh. 

Total Seats - 42

Third Front - 20

UPA – 16

NDA – 2

Others – 4 

TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY 

The election rule in Tamil Nadu these days is very simple. Whichever front that forms a broader coalition wins the election. In 1999 elections, the DMK formed a broad coalition with BJP, PMK and others and they won. In 2004 elections DMK formed even a broader alliance that included Congress party and they won big time. The coalitions have not taken final shape as of now. But DMK lead front has the prospect of forming a coalition with broader group of parties than the opposition AIADMK and hence DMK is expected to win more seats than AIADMK. Both DMK lead front and AIADMK lead front are competing against each other to get the support of PMK and actor turned politician Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam (DMDK). Both coalitions will be trying their best to project themselves as the saviors of Tamilians caught in civil war in Sri Lanka and this is going to be one of the most important poll issue in Tamil Nadu. 

Total Seats - 40

UPA -27

AIADMK lead front – 13

NDA - 0

Predict the Winners from Tamil Nadu for this elections

 KERALA

 Political parties hardly learn any lessons from the mistakes of the past. During the last Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, then opposition LDF won 18 out of 20 seats with NDA wining one seat and other seat going to Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). The main reasons for LDF victory – lack of good governance from UDF government and more important the infighting between various leaders in ruling UDF. Now LDF is in power in the state and things have not changed a bit but only the players in the drama have changed. The main party in the LDF – CPI(M), is in disarray with infighting, the coalition partners in the LDF are not happy with seat sharing and on top of it a mediocre performance by three year old LDF government – all these are going to make things tough for LDF. UDF on the other hand appears to be in much better shape with more unity among the coalition partners and more important within Congress party itself. Congress lead UDF is expected to do very well here. As always opening an account in Kerala is going to be a distant dream for BJP even during this election. 

Total Seats - 20

UPA – 16

Third Front – 4

NDA – 0

Click here for the predictions of 20 Loksabha constituencies in Kerala and a chance to select the candidates of your choice

KARNATAKA 

Only state in South India where BJP lead NDA has any chance of getting few seats. With BJP lead front not expected to win only handful of seats in other south Indian states it is a must for BJP to at least retain the seats they won last elections if they have to keep any hope of making LK Advani as India’s next Prime Minister. Even retaining those 18 seats NDA won last time will be a tough proposition for BJP. Congress being out of power for a long time will be trying hard to retain its lost ground in Karnataka. Former Prime Minister HD Deva Gowda led Third Front has areas of presence in Karnataka especially in and around Mysore and they are expected to bag few seats as well. My take on Karnataka elections: 

Total Seats - 28

NDA – 15

UPA - 10

Third Front – 3 

MAHARASHTRA 

The Congress-NCP poll alliance should close the deal here for UPA in Maharashtra. Whenever Sharad Pawar and Congress joined hands, both have reaped rich rewards except on very few occasions. Another factor that will help UPA is that there is a good probability that Sharad Pawar may become the next Prime Minister of India. If no coalition gets a working majority after the election, Sharad Pawar may emerge as a consensus candidate for the Prime Minister post. This very thought of a ‘Maharashtrian” becoming a Prime Minister will swing few crucial votes to Sharad Pawar’s party and his coalition. BJP and Shiv Sena has forged a alliance but it will be tough for them to take on the might of Congress-NCP combine who have a better mass base throughout Maharashtra compared to pockets of strength of BJP-Sena combine. 

Total Seats – 48

UPA – 30

NDA – 16

Third Front/Others – 2



So if one adds up all these five states - Overall UPA leads with 99 seats winning almot 55% of the seats.

Total Seats – 178

UPA – 99

NDA – 33

Third Front – 29

Others – 17 

So it is clear advantage for UPA in the five southern states. The results in southern states may hurt BJP plans of installing LK Advani as the next Prime Minister of India. You cannot win less than 20% of seats from the five southern states of India and still get a working majority in parliament. 

Will be back with other states soon! If you haven't already voted please do vote

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Related Posts:

Predict the Winners from Tamil Nadu for this elections 

Lok Sabha Elections in India 2009 – Through the Eyes of Cartoonists

Where is “Young Blood” In Indian Politics?

Countdown to Loksabha Elections – Meet Ramesh Chennithala, KPCC President

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13 Comments:

Anonymous Siva said...

In general i agree with your gut feelings, but i think the UPA in south India will win much more seats. In tamilnadu, if congress able to rope in Vijayakanth then the UPA with DMK, congress and DMDK will win more than 30 seats easily. the LTTE issue does not have any support among common voters and whoever think that it will help them in the polls will be a big loosers. In Andra there is no palpable anti-incumbancy against Reddy and he will win more seats than what you have here.

Sharad pawar himself thanked press for keeping him in PM race and accepted that it is not possible for him to claim PM post since he could win only a dozen seats from Maharashtra. But people still talking about him being a contender for PM post.

In general, all over india UPA will win big this time. Congress itself will win atleast two dozen more seats than what they won last time. Poor people are really benefiting from schemes such as NREGA and have lot of cash flow due to stable ecomomic growth in last five years. Middle class voters, staple for BJP, is now impressed with Manmohan's performance and they are really going to favor UPA this time. At the same time BJP having lost many coalition partners, riddled with infighting, will be a biggest looser in this election.

March 14, 2009 10:06 PM  
Anonymous KJ said...

hahah ...
this is how every body said nda will win last time..! congress govt is non performing govt!

March 14, 2009 10:58 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just Blaa Blaa
congress will win 16 seats in Kerala?
May be reverse 4-16.

When you are dreaming there is no limit..you are free to dream as if you are an emperor

March 15, 2009 10:12 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ha ..Ha

Congress couldn't even finalise their candidates in Kerala

March 15, 2009 10:13 AM  
Blogger Hapi said...

hello... hapi blogging... have a nice day! just visiting here....

March 15, 2009 3:00 PM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

Siva,
It is correct that Sharad Pawar has said that. But you never know what is going to happen after the results are published.

KJ,
NDA failed to increase their mass base so that it could win this election.

Anon @ 3:12 AM
Let us wait and watch.

Anon @ 3:13 AM
Candidate who gets the majority of the votes wins and not the candidates who are finalized first win elections.

March 15, 2009 11:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Could you post how you have arrived at the figures?

March 16, 2009 8:42 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Congress gets an absolute majority they can do wonders!

March 17, 2009 8:13 AM  
Blogger Brijesh Nair said...

Anon 1:42 AM
Reading and talking to people from various states.

March 18, 2009 2:17 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BJP Bad party,They will start war and collutions among peoples, Religoins, Advani the main Indian terrorist, We should find reason for each things,not only the result, Advani the the reason for all terrorism inside India, There is difference of affect in terrorism in India before 1993 and after that

March 18, 2009 7:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

chances for LDF 8-15 seats(PDP or Laveline issues does not make any sense)
UDF 5-10 seats(failure of UPA, seat sharing, etc..will affect UDF)
NCP 1 (may be get wayanad thru mutual understanding with LDF)
BJP 0(poor guys-still loves UDF in Kerala!)
BSP 1(K.K Nair in PTA a slight chance)
this is the actual trend...

April 02, 2009 9:09 AM  
Blogger Sachin said...

Manifesto released by Sanjeev Naik.

Vashi: Dr. Sanjeev Naik, the nominee of NCP-Congress-RPI (Athavale) alliance for the Lok sabha election, has released his party’s election manifesto, CIDCO Director and DCC President Namdeo Bhagat, MLC Manda Mhatre, NCP Navi Mumbai district president Gopinath Thakur, RPI (A) District President Sidram Ohol, Mayor Anjani Bhoir, Dy Mayor Shashikant Birajdar, opposition leader Ramakant Mhatre, Corporator Vitthal More, were present on the occasion.
Here are the few highlights of the manifesto
For NAVI MUMBAI
• Get maximum possible Funds Sanctioned from Center & MMRDA through JNNURM, for Economic upliftment of the Constituency’s Poor people, and projects like Palm Beach Flyover & other Facilities.
• Enhancing the status of Navi Mumbai Railway Stations at par with International standards & by Public Demand, have 12 Coach Trains started………………….


http://navimumbai-sanjeevjinaik.blogspot.com/2009/04/manifesto-released-by-sanjeev-naik.htmlhttp://navimumbai-naiksanjeev.blogspot.comhttp://www.sanjeevgnaik.com

April 23, 2009 8:19 AM  
Blogger Sachin said...

Manifesto released by Sanjeev Naik.

Vashi: Dr. Sanjeev Naik, the nominee of NCP-Congress-RPI (Athavale) alliance for the Lok sabha election, has released his party’s election manifesto, CIDCO Director and DCC President Namdeo Bhagat, MLC Manda Mhatre, NCP Navi Mumbai district president Gopinath Thakur, RPI (A) District President Sidram Ohol, Mayor Anjani Bhoir, Dy Mayor Shashikant Birajdar, opposition leader Ramakant Mhatre, Corporator Vitthal More, were present on the occasion.
Here are the few highlights of the manifesto
For NAVI MUMBAI
• Get maximum possible Funds Sanctioned from Center & MMRDA through JNNURM, for Economic upliftment of the Constituency’s Poor people, and projects like Palm Beach Flyover & other Facilities.
• Enhancing the status of Navi Mumbai Railway Stations at par with International standards & by Public Demand, have 12 Coach Trains started………………….


http://navimumbai-sanjeevjinaik.blogspot.com/2009/04/manifesto-released-by-sanjeev-naik.htmlhttp://navimumbai-naiksanjeev.blogspot.comhttp://www.sanjeevgnaik.com

April 23, 2009 10:13 AM  

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