Scaling New Heights

LDF-72, UDF-67, Others-1; My Prediction for Kerala Election 2006

Here is my prediction for the second and third round of elections in Kerala (My first round election prediction).

If my prediction becomes true it will be very interesting. LDF will be back to power with razor thin majority. The prominent winners are Omman Chandy, P K Kunjali Kutty, K M Mani. Balakrishna Pillai, T M Jacob, V S Achuthanandan and M A Baby. If my prediction becomes true K Muralidaran should loose in Kuduvally and M V Raghavan should loose in Punalur.Other prominent losers as per my prediction includes ministers Saktan Nadar and Sujanapal.. BJP wont open the account this time also if my predictions come true.

In nutshell this is what I am predicting

LDF-72 (CPI-M-48, CPI-16, RSP-2,KC-J-2, JD-S-2, NCP-1, Congress-S-1)

UDF-67(INC-29,IUML-13,KC-M-13,DIC-6,JSS-2,KC-B-2, RSPB-2)

IND-1

(Constituency-Winner-Party)

60 Eranakulam----------------------- K V Thomas--INC

61 Ankamali-------------------------- P J Joy--INC

62 Narakkal-------------------------- M K Purushothaman--CPI-M

63 Mattachery------------------------ M C Josephine--CPI-M

64 Paluruthi--------------------------- Dominic Presentation--INC

65 Thripunithara----------------------K Babu--INC

66 Alwaye-----------------------------K Mohamad Ali--INC

67 Perumbavoor-----------------------Saju Paul--CPI-M

68 Kunnathunadu----------------------P P Thankachan--INC

69 Piravum----------------------------T M Jacob--DIC

70 Muvattupuzha----------------------Johnny Nellore--DIC

71 Kothamangalam---------------------V J Poulose--INC

72 Vadakekara-------------------------S Sarma--CPI-M

73 Paravoor----------------------------K M Dinakaran--CPI

74 Chelakkara--------------------------K Radhakrishnan--CPI-M

75 Vadakanchery-----------------------T V Chandramohan--DIC

76 Kunnumkulam-----------------------Babu M Pallashery--CPI-M

77 Cherppu-----------------------------V S Sunil Kumar--CPI

78 Thrissur-----------------------------Therambil Ramakrishnan--INC

79 Ollur---------------------------------Rajaji Mathew Thomas--CPI

80 Kodakara----------------------------K P Vishwanathan--INC

81 Chalakudy---------------------------Savitri Lakshmanan--INC

82 Mala--------------------------------A K Chandran--CPI

83 Erinjalakuda-------------------------C K Chandran--CPI-M

84 Manaloor-----------------------------Murali Perunalli--CPI-M

85 Guruvayoor--------------------------K V Abdul Khader--CPI-M

86 Nattika-------------------------------Fathima Abdul Khader--CPI

87 Kodungaloor---------------------------K P Rajendran--CPI

88 Palakkad------------------------------K K Divakaran--CPI-M

89 Malampuzha--------------------------V S Achuthanandan--CPI-M

90 Trithala-------------------------------T P Kunnunni--CPI-M

91 Pattambi------------------------------K E Ismail--CPI

92 Ottapalam----------------------------M Hamza--CPI-M

93 Sreekrishnapuram--------------------K P Anil kumar--INC

94 Mannarkadu--------------------------Jose Baby--CPI

95 Chittur--------------------------------K Achuthan--INC

96 Kollenkode----------------------------A V Chenthamarakshan--CPI-M

97 Kuzhalmandam------------------------A K Balan--CPI-M

98 Alathoor-------------------------------M Chandran--CPI-M

99 Malappuram---------------------------M Ommer--IUML

100 Kuttipuram---------------------------P K Kunnalikutty--IUML

101 Mankada-----------------------------Muneer--IUML

102 Perinthalmanna----------------------P Abdul Hameed--IUML

103 Kondotti-----------------------------Mohammadunni Haji--IUML

104 Nilamboor---------------------------Aryadan Muhammad--INC

105 Vandoor-----------------------------Sankaran Korambayil--CPI-M

106 Manjeri------------------------------P K Abdurab--IUML

107 Thanoor-----------------------------Abdul Rahman Randathani--IUML

108 Tirur--------------------------------E T Mohammad Basheer--IUML

109 Ponnanni----------------------------Paloli Mohammad Kutty--CPI-M

110 Tirurangadi--------------------------Kutti Ahmad Kutty--IUML

111 Wadakara-----------------------------M K Premnath--JD-S

112 Thiruvambadi-------------------------M C Mayin Haji--IUML

113 Kozhikide 1 --------------------------- A Predeep Kumar--CPI-M

114 Kozhikide 2----------------------------T P M Sahir--IUML

115 Bepur----------------------------------Elimaram Karim--CPI-M

116 Kunnamangalam-----------------------C P Balan Vaidyar--CPI-M

117 Nadapuram-----------------------------Binoy Viswam--CPI

118 Koilandi--------------------------------P Viswan--CPI-M

119 Perambra-----------------------------K Kunjamad--CPI-M

120 Balusheri------------------------------A K Sasindran--NCP

121 Koduvalli-------------------------------P T A Rahim--CPI-M IND

122 Meppayur------------------------------K K Lalitha--CPI-M

123 Sultan Bateri----------------------------N D Apachan--DIC

124 Kalpetta---------------------------------K K Ramachandran--INC

125 Vadake Wayanad------------------------K C Kunjiraman--CPI-M

126 Erikkur----------------------------------K C Joseph--INC

127 Payannur--------------------------------P K Sreemathi--CPI-M

128 Thaliparambu----------------------------C K P Padmanabhan--CPI-M

129 Azhikodu--------------------------------M Prakashan--CPI-M

130 Kannur----------------------------------K Sudhakaran--INC

131 Edakkadu--------------------------------Ramachandran Kadanapalli--Con-S

132 Thalasseri--------------------------------Kodiyeri Bakrishnan--CPI-M

133 Peringalam-------------------------------K P Mohanan--JD-S

134 Kuthuparambu---------------------------P Jayarajan--CPI-M

135 Peravoor---------------------------------K K Shilaja--CPI-M

136 Manjeswaram----------------------------Cherkulam Abdulla--IUML

137 Kasargord--------------------------------Ahamadali--IUML

138 Uduma-----------------------------------K V Kunniraman--CPI-M

139 Hosdurgh--------------------------------P Ramachandran--DIC

140 Trikaripur-------------------------------K Kunniraman--CPI-M

LET US ALL HOPE THAT WHOEVER WINS THE ELECTION THIS TIME WILL SERVE THE PEOPLE OF KERALA BETTER

NOT ANY MORE

I was shocked when I heard the news that young, energetic, dynamic and charismatic BJP leader Pramod Mahajan was shot by his own brother. He is now admitted in Hinduja hospital in Mumbai and is in a very critical condition.

As Mahajan is battling for his life my thoughts went back to the promising young Indian politicians who died/killed in recent times. Rajesh Pilot, Madhavrao Scindia, Rangaragan Kumaramangalam, Rajiv Gandhi were a few who could have done a lot for the country had not their death came at a wrong time.

The great thing about these leaders was that they had a great rapport with the people. They were all truly “mass leaders” with great ideas for India’s development. People cutting across party lines respected and loved them. Rajiv Gandhi could win from any constituency from India. Madhavrao Scindia once resigned from Congress and still got elected to Lok Sabha. Kumaramangalam won elections in Congress ticket as well as BJP ticket. Rajesh Pilot in his short political career was elected 6 times to Lok Sabha.

More important these leaders were great visionaries. They had clear plans to take India to the present century. Rajiv Gandhi as Prime Minister of India had invested a lot in Science and Technology, as he understood that India need to advance in that area to compete with the world. It was ironical that even though he was an ambassador of world peace he had to meet his end in such a brutal way.

Madhavrao Scindia left his mark as an efficient Railway Minister, Civil Aviation Minister and Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) Chief. Rajesh Pilot played a great role in improving the Kashmir situation and problems in North East when he was the Union Minister for Internal Security. It was Kumaramangalam who initiated steps to comprehensively overhaul power sector.

Think of such scenario. If all these four were alive and in power; Rajiv Gandhi-Prime Minister, Rajesh Pilot-Home Minister, Madhavrao Scindia-Defense Minister, Kumaramangalam – Power Minister - How good it would have been for our country.

Coming back to Pramod Mahajan- he has the ability to do lot for India. Apart from Vajpayee and Advani (both at the twilight of their political career) he is the most charismatic leader in BJP. He can definitely make a great Prime Minister.

If we go to any funeral in Kerala where some young person has died, you will definitely hear “Nallavare dyvam nerathe vilikkum”(God will call good people early). Hope this doesn’t happen with Mahajan.

And the WINNER Is.....

It is election time in Kerala. Also it is the time for pre-poll surveys.The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll conducted by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), New Delhi, suggests that the LDF would have got 49 percent of the popular votes and 93 to 103 seats in the 140-seat State Assembly. Also lot of other pre-poll surveys are coming out.

In all these surveys they interview few hundreds of people and then extrapolate it to the whole state/country. I don’t know the science behind it. But I thought I should also try my luck. Here is my prediction. I have arrived at this conclusions based on the newspaper reports, past voting pattern in these constituencies, talking to my friends back in India about the prospects of various candidates. My prediction for the 59 assembly constituencies that go to polls this Saturday. I have done a similar stuff in 1991 assembly/parliament election for "Predict the WInner" contest in Malayala Manorama. That day I couldn't predict even half of it. Let me see how many I can get correct this time.

The blue ones are the constituencies were I am predicting a UDF victory and red ones for LDF. If my prediction becomes correct then UDF will have 33 seats,LDF will have 25 and independent will get 1 seat. It seems like UDF is leading but in reality it is losing about 10 seats to LDF compared to last election.

(Constituency-Winner-Party)

1. Parassala ------------------------- Sundaram Nadar-INC
2. Neyatinkara ----------------------V J Thankappam -CPI-M
3. Kovalam --------------------------George Mazier -INC
4. Trivandrum-West---------------- Shobana George -DIC
5. Trivandrum-North ---------------M Vijayakumar -CPI-M
6. Trivandrum-East ---------------- Sivankutty -CPI-M
7. Nemom-------------------------- V Bhaskaran- CPI-M
8. Nedumangad--------------------- Palodu Ravi- INC
9. Kilimanoor----------------------- N Rajan -CPI
10. Vamanapuram------------------- J Arundathi -CPI-M
11. Varkala-------------------------- Sundareshan -CPI-M
12. Attingal-------------------------- C Mohanachandran- INC
13. Kazhakuttom--------------------- M A Wahid -INC
14. Aryanadu------------------------ G Karthikeyan- INC
15. Kollam--------------------------- Babu Divakaran-RSP-B
16. Kundara------------------------- M A Baby-CPI-M
17. Chavara------------------------- Shibu BabyJohn-RSP-B
18. Kottarakkara-------------------- Balakrishna Pillai-KC-B
19. Eravipuram----------------------A A Aziz-RSP
20. Chathanur-----------------------N Anirudan-CPI
21. Pathanapuram-------------------Ganesh Kumar-KC-B
22. Punalur--------------------------K Raju-CPI
23. Chadayamangalam---------------Mullakara Rathnakaran-CPI
24. Neduvathoor---------------------E Narayanan-INC
25. Kunathoor------------------------K Kunjumon-RSP
26. Karunagapalli--------------------A N Rajan Babu-JSS
27. Konni----------------------------Adoor Prakash-INC
28. Pathanamthitta------------------K K Nair-IND
29. Aramulla-------------------------K C Rajagopal-CPI-M
30. Thiruvalla------------------------Victor T Thomas-KC-M
31. RanniRaju ------------------------Abraham-CPI
32. Adoor----------------------------T Radhakrishnan-INC
33. Kalluparra------------------------Joseph Puthusherri-KC-M
34. Allapuzha-------------------------KC Venugopal-INC
35. Aroor-----------------------------K R Gowriamma-JSS
36. Kayamkulam----------------------C K Sadasivan-CPI-M
37. Haripad--------------------------T K Devakumar-CPI-M
38. Ambalapuzha--------------------G Sudhakaran-CPI-M
39. Cherthala------------------------P Thilothaman-CPI
40. Mararikulam---------------------Thomas Issac-CPI-M
41. Changanoor-----------------------P C Vishnunath-INC
42. Kuttanad-------------------------K C Joseph-KC-J
43. Mavelikkara----------------------M Murali-INC
44. Pandalam-------------------------K Raghavan-CPI-M
45. Puthupalli------------------------Omman Chandy-INC
46. Pala------------------------------K M Mani-KC-M
47. Changanashery------------------C F Thomas-KC-M
48. Ettumanoor----------------------Thomas ChazhikadanKC-M
49. Kanirapally-----------------------Joseph Vazhakkan-INC
50. Kottayam-------------------------V N Vasavan-CPI-M
51. Vaikom---------------------------K Ajith-CPI
52. Punjar---------------------------T V Abraham-KC-M
53. Kadumthuruthi-------------------Stephon GeorgeKC-M
54. Vazhoor-------------------------N Jayaraj-KC-M
55. Thodupuzha---------------------P J Joseph-KC-J
56. Idukki---------------------------Roshi Augustine-KC-M
57. Udumbachola--------------------K K Jayachandran-CPI-M
58. Perimedu------------------------E M Augusti-INC
59. Devikulam-----------------------A K Mani-INC

Why I Respect "Leader" K Karunakaran?

Leader K Karunakaran’s official website launched – Click here to go to his web site

Assembly elections in Kerala is nearing and I am planning to write a series of blogs about that. Here is the first one.

I thought it could be appropriate to start this series by writing about a person who I respect a lot. I am talking about K Karunakaran, former Chief Minister of Kerala. This photo was taken in his residence "Kottarathil Sasta", when I went to India last time for my marraige. I know most of you hate him and could be happy if I address Leader as “kalla karunakaran” or “ karunkali karunakaran”.

Let me tell you all why I respect Leader. I started keenly following politics from mid eighties. I have closely observed 4 Chief Ministers (Karuanakaran, E K Nayanar, A K Antony and now Omman Chandy) and seven governments (5 UDF and 2 LDF).

If you ask any Malayali to recollect the major industrial developments that happened in Kerala in the last 10 or 20 years, I am sure he will list the following. The order in which he list will be different but the following will surely be in his list- Nedumbassery airport with people’s participation, Kayakulam Thermal Power Plant, Technopark in Trivandrum,Guruvayoor Rail Line to name few. All these developmental activities were initiated when Karunakaran was the Chief Minister.

He had the vision to see that Information Technology was going to be the “buzz” word in the next century (as early in 1991) and he took steps to start Technopark, immediately after Roa - Manmohan Singh opened up the Indian economy. This was much before Chandrababu Naidu, the then CM of Andrapradesh even thought of Hi-Tech City.

Karunakaran envisioned the building of an international airport with money from Non Resident Indians. He showed to the world that NRI’s are ready to invest in Kerala if government comes up with creative projects. For those who thinks that acquiring land is a big problem in Kerala he was able to acquire around 300 acres of land in Trivandrum for Technopark.

He was the Chief Minister who takes a decision, stick to it and implement it. (Omman Chandy to me comes close to Leader in this aspect) It was unlike E K Nayanar who allowed most of the decisions to be made from AKG Center or like A K Antony who thinks just about his image and does nothing good for the state.

I also feel that Malayalis should always be thankful to him for the steps he took to curb the Naxalite menace in Kerala. Remember that parts of Western India still have naxalite problem, which started through out India in the mid 70s. With an “iron hand” Leader who was then the home minister brought it down. Those people who took law in their hand were dealt with firmly and naxalism died forever in Kerala.

I know politicians can survive only by playing politics and Leader plays a lot of it. Even though I don’t agree with few of the politics he played in recent times, I respect him.

Labels: India, Indian Politics, Karunakaran, Kerala

Anti-Defection Law-Time to Change it?

I was following the various bills that come before US Congress & Senate and how members vote. They vote based on the bill and never along party lines. The concept of “party whip” as practiced in India is non-existent in US Congress or Senate.

In India once you are elected to the parliament on a party ticket, you are bound to vote the way party tells. The parliamentarians (equivalent to Congressman in US) are not allowed to vote based on issues even if he is personally against/for the issue. He has to obey the party or else he will loose his membership from parliament.

The concept of party whip came into being in 1980’s with the passing of Anti-Defection Bill. This bill was passed mainly to prevent the frequent switching sides of parliamentarians to various parties (in most cases greed for money and power plays a big role).

I am a strong believer that provision of “party whip” is not a good idea at all. Yes I agree, the concept of “Aya Ram, Gaya Ram” (term used in Indian politics to represent those elected representatives switching loyalty often) should be stopped under any cost. Doing that by issuing party whip does more harm than good.

Suppose a ruling party MP feels that the budget presented for this financial year does more harm to the people who elected him than good. In that case he should vote against the budget so that it gets defeated and his people are not affected. Now if he does that now, he automatically loses his membership from parliament.

If anti-defection law was to prevent frequent floor crossing, I think it can be implemented in a more efficient way. I believe that India should put a limit to the number of times a person can contest election to become MP/MLA and also number of times he can be sworn in as Minister/Chief Minister. If we look back most of the floor crossing are for temporary gains (Charan Singh Government, Chandrasekhar Government). If we set a time limit for each post then most of them will resist the temptation of crossing over for temporary gains. Or may be we have another better option. I don’t know. But I know one thing.