Saturday, April 29, 2006

LDF-72, UDF-67, Others-1; My Prediction for Kerala Election 2006

Here is my prediction for the second and third round of elections in Kerala (My first round election prediction).

If my prediction becomes true it will be very interesting. LDF will be back to power with razor thin majority. The prominent winners are Omman Chandy, P K Kunjali Kutty, K M Mani. Balakrishna Pillai, T M Jacob, V S Achuthanandan and M A Baby. If my prediction becomes true K Muralidaran should loose in Kuduvally and M V Raghavan should loose in Punalur.Other prominent losers as per my prediction includes ministers Saktan Nadar and Sujanapal.. BJP wont open the account this time also if my predictions come true.

In nutshell this is what I am predicting

LDF-72 (CPI-M-48, CPI-16, RSP-2,KC-J-2, JD-S-2, NCP-1, Congress-S-1)

UDF-67(INC-29,IUML-13,KC-M-13,DIC-6,JSS-2,KC-B-2, RSPB-2)



60 Eranakulam----------------------- K V Thomas--INC

61 Ankamali-------------------------- P J Joy--INC

62 Narakkal-------------------------- M K Purushothaman--CPI-M

63 Mattachery------------------------ M C Josephine--CPI-M

64 Paluruthi--------------------------- Dominic Presentation--INC

65 Thripunithara----------------------K Babu--INC

66 Alwaye-----------------------------K Mohamad Ali--INC

67 Perumbavoor-----------------------Saju Paul--CPI-M

68 Kunnathunadu----------------------P P Thankachan--INC

69 Piravum----------------------------T M Jacob--DIC

70 Muvattupuzha----------------------Johnny Nellore--DIC

71 Kothamangalam---------------------V J Poulose--INC

72 Vadakekara-------------------------S Sarma--CPI-M

73 Paravoor----------------------------K M Dinakaran--CPI

74 Chelakkara--------------------------K Radhakrishnan--CPI-M

75 Vadakanchery-----------------------T V Chandramohan--DIC

76 Kunnumkulam-----------------------Babu M Pallashery--CPI-M

77 Cherppu-----------------------------V S Sunil Kumar--CPI

78 Thrissur-----------------------------Therambil Ramakrishnan--INC

79 Ollur---------------------------------Rajaji Mathew Thomas--CPI

80 Kodakara----------------------------K P Vishwanathan--INC

81 Chalakudy---------------------------Savitri Lakshmanan--INC

82 Mala--------------------------------A K Chandran--CPI

83 Erinjalakuda-------------------------C K Chandran--CPI-M

84 Manaloor-----------------------------Murali Perunalli--CPI-M

85 Guruvayoor--------------------------K V Abdul Khader--CPI-M

86 Nattika-------------------------------Fathima Abdul Khader--CPI

87 Kodungaloor---------------------------K P Rajendran--CPI

88 Palakkad------------------------------K K Divakaran--CPI-M

89 Malampuzha--------------------------V S Achuthanandan--CPI-M

90 Trithala-------------------------------T P Kunnunni--CPI-M

91 Pattambi------------------------------K E Ismail--CPI

92 Ottapalam----------------------------M Hamza--CPI-M

93 Sreekrishnapuram--------------------K P Anil kumar--INC

94 Mannarkadu--------------------------Jose Baby--CPI

95 Chittur--------------------------------K Achuthan--INC

96 Kollenkode----------------------------A V Chenthamarakshan--CPI-M

97 Kuzhalmandam------------------------A K Balan--CPI-M

98 Alathoor-------------------------------M Chandran--CPI-M

99 Malappuram---------------------------M Ommer--IUML

100 Kuttipuram---------------------------P K Kunnalikutty--IUML

101 Mankada-----------------------------Muneer--IUML

102 Perinthalmanna----------------------P Abdul Hameed--IUML

103 Kondotti-----------------------------Mohammadunni Haji--IUML

104 Nilamboor---------------------------Aryadan Muhammad--INC

105 Vandoor-----------------------------Sankaran Korambayil--CPI-M

106 Manjeri------------------------------P K Abdurab--IUML

107 Thanoor-----------------------------Abdul Rahman Randathani--IUML

108 Tirur--------------------------------E T Mohammad Basheer--IUML

109 Ponnanni----------------------------Paloli Mohammad Kutty--CPI-M

110 Tirurangadi--------------------------Kutti Ahmad Kutty--IUML

111 Wadakara-----------------------------M K Premnath--JD-S

112 Thiruvambadi-------------------------M C Mayin Haji--IUML

113 Kozhikide 1 --------------------------- A Predeep Kumar--CPI-M

114 Kozhikide 2----------------------------T P M Sahir--IUML

115 Bepur----------------------------------Elimaram Karim--CPI-M

116 Kunnamangalam-----------------------C P Balan Vaidyar--CPI-M

117 Nadapuram-----------------------------Binoy Viswam--CPI

118 Koilandi--------------------------------P Viswan--CPI-M

119 Perambra-----------------------------K Kunjamad--CPI-M

120 Balusheri------------------------------A K Sasindran--NCP

121 Koduvalli-------------------------------P T A Rahim--CPI-M IND

122 Meppayur------------------------------K K Lalitha--CPI-M

123 Sultan Bateri----------------------------N D Apachan--DIC

124 Kalpetta---------------------------------K K Ramachandran--INC

125 Vadake Wayanad------------------------K C Kunjiraman--CPI-M

126 Erikkur----------------------------------K C Joseph--INC

127 Payannur--------------------------------P K Sreemathi--CPI-M

128 Thaliparambu----------------------------C K P Padmanabhan--CPI-M

129 Azhikodu--------------------------------M Prakashan--CPI-M

130 Kannur----------------------------------K Sudhakaran--INC

131 Edakkadu--------------------------------Ramachandran Kadanapalli--Con-S

132 Thalasseri--------------------------------Kodiyeri Bakrishnan--CPI-M

133 Peringalam-------------------------------K P Mohanan--JD-S

134 Kuthuparambu---------------------------P Jayarajan--CPI-M

135 Peravoor---------------------------------K K Shilaja--CPI-M

136 Manjeswaram----------------------------Cherkulam Abdulla--IUML

137 Kasargord--------------------------------Ahamadali--IUML

138 Uduma-----------------------------------K V Kunniraman--CPI-M

139 Hosdurgh--------------------------------P Ramachandran--DIC

140 Trikaripur-------------------------------K Kunniraman--CPI-M


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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like you are closer to reality this time. Your last guess I should say is far off the trend..

April 29, 2006 8:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sheri Sheri, nee enthe venamenkilum predict cheytho.. ee rakthathil enikke pankilla.. njaan kai kazhukunnu!!!

April 29, 2006 8:32 AM  
Blogger AJITH said...

Eventhough I dont support the left that much, I should say they'll fare better than this..My take is 82-58 in favour of LDF..Anyway, nicely written.

April 29, 2006 12:56 PM  
Blogger Babin said...

If Murali loose in Koduvalli, that will be the best thing that come out of this election! But wondering why you would think so?? All the saamuthayika supports are in his favor, rt?

April 30, 2006 2:15 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Soni, Interesting analysis...more interesting to see your keen interest and acute analysis of the kerala political developments from Arizona...But i like to differ with you in the number of seats to LDF...I hope, it will be around 85-100 and expect a seat for BJP deviating from all opinion polls....vinod...tvm...Bpl..

April 30, 2006 2:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

the prediction of Murali losing koduvally is a shock to me, but thats one thing i would pray for. We will certainly have to see how your predictions go after may 11th, but some of them are almost easily predictable. But to have an end-to-end prediction, you must have given it some serious thought.... and closely watch the politics graph. The events just before elections were some of the most dramatic ones one would see in Kerala politics. we know we can expect blacklegs [read karinkaali :)] always before polls. but never before have i seen such somersaults.. DIC with UDF and Achuthananthan with his seat and chiefminister post.

Well, we will wait and see how your predictions go.. good work brijesh.. keep it going..


May 01, 2006 12:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You have predicted failure for MVR, I am from Punalur constituency, if Supal was CPI candidate he might have won, but this AK Raju nobody knows, and MVR has united congress and UDf as well, all past failures for UDF there was due to congress faction fueds and para, now its not there MVR will win by 6000 votes.

May 01, 2006 6:53 AM  
Blogger Brijesh said...

@anon1- I agree with u. My first prediction gave UDF 33 seats. Vayalar Ravi predicted 32 seats for UDF in the first phase. So for the first phase I may be little off. Hope it wont be way off.

@ajith-Yes it is true that LDF will get the right numbers to form the next government

Babin- it is true that Koduvalli has only returned Muslim League candidates in the recent past. But if u see in 1991 and 1996, Muslim League won by slender margins of less than 1000 votes. In 1996 ML won by less than 100 votes. So you cannot call that a “sure seat” of Muslim League.

This time a lot of Muslim factions are against Muslim League (ML). This may be the first time ML is facing such an opposition from Muslims in Malappuram. So a 5% of the total votes polled last time won’t be polled for UDF (This is true for most of the seats ML is contesting this elections).

Another reason I believe will act against Murali is that atleast 5% of the Congress sympathizers wont vote for Murali for what he has done in the past 3 years to UDF.

I hate to write this but this is a fact in electoral politics in Kerala. I have seen a lot of people voting based on the religion/caste of candidates. If UDF has a hindu candidate and LDF has a Christian candidate then an Hindu will vote for UDF just because the candidate happens to be a Hindu. If you ask why you vote/support that candidate they will tell “He belongs to my caste/religion” (Shame to say that we are 100% literate state). Same “phenomena” is going to happen in Koduvally. LDF candidate being a Muslim will get those votes which could have gone to UDF if its candidate was a Muslim. All these things combined together should make life difficult for Murali.

anon3- I still feel LDF wont get more than 80 seats.

May 02, 2006 2:06 AM  
Blogger Ram said...

Since I have no idea about Kerala politics or on the dynamics of this specific election, here's my comment....err...nice template!

And great to see the punch line back! Let us all hope indeed!


May 02, 2006 9:23 AM  
Blogger Umesh said...

Kerala has seen some of the worst polling percentages in recent years. I dont see the turnout exceeding 70%. Wont this have an effect on the results?

May 02, 2006 6:10 PM  
Anonymous Dr. JK Vijayakumar said...

Hi Soni,

While appreciating your predictions, let me give mine. LDF will be winning morethan 100 seats this time. AND MOST IMPORTANT THING....CPI(M) alone will secure majority with 75-77 seats this time.This will be going to change the entire political scenario of Kerala towards West bengal style.

DIC will loose most of their seats. Muslim League, RSPs in UDF,KCB etc will loose seats.In LDF, CPI will be loosing few seats.

No one predicted the next CM. Can I do it? It should be M A Baby, I am sure.

For last Loksabha elections, I predicted 18 seats to LDF, it was true.

May 03, 2006 7:09 PM  
Blogger Brijesh said...

Umesh, The voter turnout is over 72% which is not that bad. Lower voter turn out has always helped LDF. I believe the main factor in this election is how the BJP votes goes. They had a vote share of 12% in the last Lok Sabha Polls but this time it wont go above 4%. How the remaining 8% goes will decide who will win the election

Hi Dr Vijayakumar,
I still believe 80-60 in favor of LDF. I think regarding CM u may be correct. Chances of M A Baby becoming CM is very very good. I am pretty sure VS is not going to become the CM. CPI-M State Secretariat is filled with anti VS faction and I am sure this will work against him.
Let us see if ur predictions come true this time also.

May 05, 2006 8:11 AM  
Blogger Lib-Info-Space said...

I hope now you admit that, your prediction were wrong. For Kollam District I predicted 10 seats for LDF, I was wrong in Chadayamanagalam. LDF got only 11 seats now. I also predicted DIC will loose seats. Our predictions should not be biased, it should rely on facts. See you on next election.

May 11, 2006 11:51 AM  
Blogger Brijesh said...

Pazhangalam- I accept I was off by 5 in kollam and u by 1. I tried not be baised at all while making prediction. Make be next time I can do a better job

May 11, 2006 12:13 PM  
Blogger Babin said...

Nice to see your prediction about Murali came true! Everything else, doesn't matter:)
Gotta congratulate you for putting the effort to blog this big list of predictions.
I will be lurking around here during the future elections to see your next set of predictions!

May 13, 2006 2:47 AM  

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