Thursday, April 20, 2006

And the WINNER Is.....

It is election time in Kerala. Also it is the time for pre-poll surveys.The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll conducted by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), New Delhi, suggests that the LDF would have got 49 percent of the popular votes and 93 to 103 seats in the 140-seat State Assembly. Also lot of other pre-poll surveys are coming out.

In all these surveys they interview few hundreds of people and then extrapolate it to the whole state/country. I don’t know the science behind it. But I thought I should also try my luck. Here is my prediction. I have arrived at this conclusions based on the newspaper reports, past voting pattern in these constituencies, talking to my friends back in India about the prospects of various candidates. My prediction for the 59 assembly constituencies that go to polls this Saturday. I have done a similar stuff in 1991 assembly/parliament election for "Predict the WInner" contest in Malayala Manorama. That day I couldn't predict even half of it. Let me see how many I can get correct this time.

The blue ones are the constituencies were I am predicting a UDF victory and red ones for LDF. If my prediction becomes correct then UDF will have 33 seats,LDF will have 25 and independent will get 1 seat. It seems like UDF is leading but in reality it is losing about 10 seats to LDF compared to last election.


  1. Parassala ------------------------- Sundaram Nadar-INC
  2. Neyatinkara ----------------------V J Thankappam -CPI-M
  3. Kovalam --------------------------George Mazier -INC
  4. Trivandrum-West---------------- Shobana George -DIC
  5. Trivandrum-North ---------------M Vijayakumar -CPI-M
  6. Trivandrum-East ---------------- Sivankutty -CPI-M
  7. Nemom-------------------------- V Bhaskaran- CPI-M
  8. Nedumangad--------------------- Palodu Ravi- INC
  9. Kilimanoor----------------------- N Rajan -CPI
  10. Vamanapuram------------------- J Arundathi -CPI-M
  11. Varkala-------------------------- Sundareshan -CPI-M
  12. Attingal-------------------------- C Mohanachandran- INC
  13. Kazhakuttom--------------------- M A Wahid -INC
  14. Aryanadu------------------------ G Karthikeyan- INC
  15. Kollam--------------------------- Babu Divakaran-RSP-B
  16. Kundara------------------------- M A Baby-CPI-M
  17. Chavara------------------------- Shibu BabyJohn-RSP-B
  18. Kottarakkara-------------------- Balakrishna Pillai-KC-B
  19. Eravipuram----------------------A A Aziz-RSP
  20. Chathanur-----------------------N Anirudan-CPI
  21. Pathanapuram-------------------Ganesh Kumar-KC-B
  22. Punalur--------------------------K Raju-CPI
  23. Chadayamangalam---------------Mullakara Rathnakaran-CPI
  24. Neduvathoor---------------------E Narayanan-INC
  25. Kunathoor------------------------K Kunjumon-RSP
  26. Karunagapalli--------------------A N Rajan Babu-JSS
  27. Konni----------------------------Adoor Prakash-INC
  28. Pathanamthitta------------------K K Nair-IND
  29. Aramulla-------------------------K C Rajagopal-CPI-M
  30. Thiruvalla------------------------Victor T Thomas-KC-M
  31. RanniRaju ------------------------Abraham-CPI
  32. Adoor----------------------------T Radhakrishnan-INC
  33. Kalluparra------------------------Joseph Puthusherri-KC-M
  34. Allapuzha-------------------------KC Venugopal-INC
  35. Aroor-----------------------------K R Gowriamma-JSS
  36. Kayamkulam----------------------C K Sadasivan-CPI-M
  37. Haripad--------------------------T K Devakumar-CPI-M
  38. Ambalapuzha--------------------G Sudhakaran-CPI-M
  39. Cherthala------------------------P Thilothaman-CPI
  40. Mararikulam---------------------Thomas Issac-CPI-M
  41. Changanoor-----------------------P C Vishnunath-INC
  42. Kuttanad-------------------------K C Joseph-KC-J
  43. Mavelikkara----------------------M Murali-INC
  44. Pandalam-------------------------K Raghavan-CPI-M
  45. Puthupalli------------------------Omman Chandy-INC
  46. Pala------------------------------K M Mani-KC-M
  47. Changanashery------------------C F Thomas-KC-M
  48. Ettumanoor----------------------Thomas ChazhikadanKC-M
  49. Kanirapally-----------------------Joseph Vazhakkan-INC
  50. Kottayam-------------------------V N Vasavan-CPI-M
  51. Vaikom---------------------------K Ajith-CPI
  52. Punjar---------------------------T V Abraham-KC-M
  53. Kadumthuruthi-------------------Stephon GeorgeKC-M
  54. Vazhoor-------------------------N Jayaraj-KC-M
  55. Thodupuzha---------------------P J Joseph-KC-J
  56. Idukki---------------------------Roshi Augustine-KC-M
  57. Udumbachola--------------------K K Jayachandran-CPI-M
  58. Perimedu------------------------E M Augusti-INC
  59. Devikulam-----------------------A K Mani-INC
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Anonymous Anonymous said...

God knows what better they are gonna do this time

April 20, 2006 9:06 AM  
Blogger aniSH... said...

>> "I have done a similar stuff in 1991 assembly/parliament election for "Predict the WInner" contest in Malayala Manorama. That day I couldn't predict even half of it. Let me see how many I can get correct this time."
Looks like same fate awaits you this time tooo... 33/59 for UDF!. 33/140 looks more reasonable :).

April 20, 2006 10:00 AM  
Anonymous Vivek Nair said...

I tend to agree with Brijesh. With DIC(K) not deciding to do a "kaaluvaaral" of Congress, it seems like more votes for UDF and even though Achu mama and Pinarayi has called it a truce, letz see if they really do not try to pull the carpet from under each other's feet. I may not agree with Trivandrum East though, my constituency - the recent Loksabha elections cannot be considered as a model for the assembly now since the equations have changed. Who knows this may be one of the rare moments when the ruling front "returns" back to power !!

April 20, 2006 3:06 PM  
Anonymous Vivek Nair said...

Forgot to add, good analysis, Brijesh ! You should be helping out Prannoy Roy !!! ;)

April 20, 2006 3:07 PM  
Blogger Brijesh said...

anish-I beleive this election UDF is going to get around 60 seats and LDF around 80 seat. Last time of the 59 constituencies which went to poll, UDF got 45 of them. Also dont forget Kottayam. Pahtanthitta and Idukki are UDF's strongholds and these 3 combined is over 20 seats. Congress may do well in Eranakulam also but beyond that (Thrissur and north) it would be a big swing in favour of LDF. Muslim League may get few seats. That is my thoughts. Hope this time I get it right.

Vivek-CPI-M is contesting for the first time in Trivandrum East. So their cadres will work overtime to make Sivankutty win. Also BJP has a very good candidate there which will take away a chunk of COngress votes. Let us wait and see.

"You should be helping out Prannoy Roy !!!"

masheeee jeevichu potteee-kaliakkatheeeeee

April 21, 2006 2:16 AM  
Blogger Ram said...

Ok Brijesh, where is our punchline this time? Come on, how can you not post your trademark summary line?

April 21, 2006 4:43 AM  
Blogger aniSH... said...

Brijesh, my numbers come from the following rough guess.
I think LDF will sweep the following districts -- TVM, Kollam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kozhikode, Kannur, Kasargod ~ 63/70 (for LDF)

Will have decisive upper hand in Allapuzha, EKM ~ 17/25 (for LDF)

50-50 in PTA, IDU, KTM, WY ~ 15/30 (for LDF)

IUML (with the kind of money they are throwing in) will hold onto most of
their seats in Malappuram ~ 5/15 (for LDF)

Hence around 100/140! :)... (sorry I am a bit biased towards CPM)

April 21, 2006 2:26 PM  
Blogger Vinod/Kakka said...

TVM West : Sarath Chandra Prasad, if BJP does not do him much harm

April 21, 2006 5:02 PM  
Blogger Brijesh said...

ram-it took me more than 3 hours to format this post. By the time I completed it I was so exhausted that I dont want to write anything more.
anish-I cannot agree with u in tvm,kollom,pta,ekm and ktym. Let us wait to see who is correct.

I dont think so. I believe the day BJP gave him support his chances r gone. Antony Raju was from a community of fisherman (West has a major chunk of them) and denying him seat will make these communites vote against LDF. So winner will be Shobhana even if most people in West doesnt want her to win.

April 21, 2006 5:13 PM  
Blogger Vijay Ramamurthi said...

Looks like congress is having its blues and CPIM red faced?

April 21, 2006 5:58 PM  
Blogger Umesh said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

April 21, 2006 11:19 PM  
Blogger Umesh said...

My opinion is UDF will find it difficult to return to power as the anti-incumbency factor is pretty high in Keral politics. But i believe it will be a close election. Tvm-West will NOT be a DIC bastion. I hope it will vote against Kalla Karunakaran.

Denying Antony Raju a seat will hurt LDF's hopes. I would like to see Sharath Chandra Prasad win.

We'll wait and see

April 21, 2006 11:26 PM  
Blogger Brijesh said...

Trivandrum west has a sizeable Muslim population U need majority of Muslim vote to win. Since BJP has openly supported Sarat, no Muslim will vote for him. So the law of average is against him.

Muslim vote will split between UDF and LDF. PDP has a strong presence in places like kamaleswaram, manacaud, poonthura etc which should help LDF. But a majority of Muslims who vote for LDF will vote for UDF this time because of denying seat to Antony Raju. They could have voted for Sarat had he not taken support of BJP. The LDF candidate in TVM-West is a political lightweight. Also shobhana george started nursing the constituency for about a year now. She use to pay a monthly amount to Udayakumar’s mother (who was killed in the police station) for the last few month. She started playing politics almost 6 months back and tht may add to her favour.

Also we should keep in mind that it is the constituency which registers the minimum voter turn out in Kerala (Last few elections it never went over 55%). So anything can happen.

Umesh, u call Karunakaran as “Kalla Karunakaran” and u support Sarat. Sarat was the right hand of Karunakaran for more than 20 years. Now he no longer supports Karunakaran, u want him to win. Interesting.

April 21, 2006 11:49 PM  
Blogger Babin said...

WOW, I am surprised.. Udf Prospects looks much better than I expected, on your analysis.
Over the past elections, everyone, including the media, have under estimated the anti-incumbency factor.. Hope you haven't slipped in to the same trap. Good luck on your predictions..

BTW, me made an excel file w/ last 5 niyamasaba elections' results... Check it out @ It may be helpful for your next round of predictions.

April 22, 2006 6:21 AM  
Blogger Brijesh said...

Babin-Let us wait till May 10th to see if I underestimated or overestimated some factor. Thanks a lot for the excel sheet

April 22, 2006 7:07 AM  
Anonymous Vivek Nair said...

Hi Brijesh, Tvm east-l Sivankutty is known as a peruketta "pennupidiyan" among the female voters. Even tho he was the honorable mayor once in Tvm city, am guessing the major votes from the female voters will go against him. That should somewhat tilt the balance in favor of UDF there even if BJP candidate takes some votes away.

April 22, 2006 1:24 PM  
Blogger KeralaElection2006 said...

Brijesh, this looks good...

April 22, 2006 2:45 PM  
Blogger Brijesh said...

@Vivek-I dont know about that image Sivankutty has. He was a reasonably good mayor. Even if I agree that his moral side is weak I dont think that has a great effect with kerala people. If they care that then Neelan or Kunhalikutty could never have won last election in 2001. So that wont be a big factor even though I am not sure if such a factor exists.
@KeralaElection2006-Thanks a lot!

April 22, 2006 8:11 PM  
Blogger aniSH... said...

hello Brijesh,
so you got it wrong this time too eh? :)

I had made the following predictions :
1. "I think LDF will sweep the following districts - TVM, Kollam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kozhikode, Kannur, Kasargod ~ 63/70 (for LDF)"
--> Actually 65/80 not bad ;)

2. "Will have decisive upper hand in Allapuzha, EKM ~ 17/25 (for LDF)"
--> actually 15/22 spot on!

3. "50-50 in PTA, IDU, KTM, WY ~ 15/30 (for LDF)"
--> 15/28 right on the mark again!

4. "IUML (with the kind of money they are throwing in) will hold onto most of
their seats in Malappuram ~ 5/15 (for LDF)"
--> 5/15 it is! ( 12 in Malappuram, 1 Mattanchery, 1 Kunnamangalam, 1 Kasargod)

So not a bad day of prediction for me.


May 11, 2006 11:56 AM  
Blogger Brijesh said...

anish-Yes u were much closer than me on most of the prediction. I got 65% of my prediction correct which is great improvement from last time (from around 40%). May be next time we will be on par

May 11, 2006 12:17 PM  

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